GoLearn Forex Analysis 9/12/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on December 9th, 2009
Pound Range Bound Since May by GoLearn Forex
GBP/USD:
The Greenback continues to rally and we are approaching pivotal handles across the G-10. The GBP has been range bound since the end of May, so much so, that it is the worst performing currency against the Dollar amongst the G-10 since May 25th. Currently the 100 day MA is sitting above the 50 day MA which is indicative of a falling price environment.
The Pound is currently trading at 1.6276 and the 50 SMA is sitting at 1.6404. A close below the 50 SMA generates a strong Short entry signal. In addition, using the Fibonacci Retrace from the Cable’s low on March 11th at 1.3657 to the Cable’s high at 1.7043 on August 5th brings to the forefront some important levels.
INSERT CHART A
The 23.6% Retrace level sits at 1.6244 just 30 pips from the current mark. The close today likely below the 50 SMA coupled with a breach of the 23.6% level may send the GBP free falling to the next Fibo level of 38.2% or 1.5749.
There are a number of trading indicators that are used for ranging markets versus trending markets. The MACD is a common and important tool for traders as it more easily identifies momentum and changes thereto. In the Chart below the red vertical line highlights the crossover of the Average versus the MACD, representing a shift in momentum.
INSERT CHART B
Another indicative technical pattern we use are lower lows, lower highs and vice versa. As you see on the chart above we have been trending down within the range. More importantly we have reached a succession of lower high and lower lows. The more the pattern repeats itself the greater the confirmation of the move and the more likely it is to continue.
The combination of MA’s, Fibonacci’s, MACD, and technical patterns identifies potential entry points, momentum, and profit targets.
Gold Continues Sell-off by GoLearn Forex
Global Equity Markets slumped on Tuesday as a wave of poor economic news and lowered rating caught the market off guard. In Japan, GDP printed less than forecasted, coming in at 1.3%. Fitch lowered its rating on Greece. In Dubai, the main developer reported a $3.65 billion loss contributing to the market’s woes. The DJIA finished the session down 104.14 points to close at 10,287.97
The Dollar continued its rally feeding off the poor equity performance as risk aversion remained in firm control. The DXY closed at 76.31, a level not seen since early November. Gold continued its selloff as it closed the day down $30 to 1,128.40. Oil was not far behind finishing the day down $1.31 to 72.62 a barrel.
The BOC left rates unchanged at .25. In Switzerland, Unemployment printed as expected for November at 4.2%. Later today the RBZ will announce its Interest Rate decision. They are widely expected to keep rates on hold, currently at 2.5%. With no relief insight we expect the dollar rally to continue in to today.
Upcoming Forex Events for December 9, 2009
CHF Unemployment Rate Actual 4.10% Forecast 4.20% Previous 4.10%
EUR German CPI (MoM) Actual -0.10% Forecast -0.20% Previous -0.20%
NZD Interest Rate Decision Forecast 2.50% Previous 2.50%
AUD Employment Change Forecast 6.00K Previous 24.50K
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review 09/12/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on December 9th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar continued gaining versus most majors as investors turned to the Safe Haven of the Dollar as the global economy keeps struggling to end the recession. President Obama called for more federal spending to fight the unemployment. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism was out weaker with 46.8 versus 49.5 expected. NASDAQ and Dow Jones dropped by -0.76% and -1.00% respectively as the Dollar strengthened. Crude weakened by -1.23% closing at 73.02$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) fell by -2.87% closing at 1130$ an ounce on a stronger Dollar. Today, Wholesale Inventories are expected with -0.6% versus -0.9% prior.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro continued falling versus the Dollar, breaking below the 1.48 support level. German Industrial Production came out weaker with -1.8% versus 1.1% expected and sent equity markets to declines. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4680 and with a high of 1.4867. French Non-Farm Payrolls will be released at night and are expected to remain with 0% change. ECB Monthly Report will also be released at night giving outlooks for various economic issues.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4699
|
Resistance |
1.4735 |
1.4896 |
1.5090 |
|
Support |
1.4668 |
|
|
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound dropped versus the Dollar after Manufacturing Production came out short with 0% versus 0.5% expected. NIESR GDP Estimate came out 0.2% versus -0.4% prior. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6255 and a high of 1.6476. Today, Trade Balance is expected with -6.9B versus -7.2B prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6190
|
Resistance |
1.6311 |
1.6515 |
1.6670 |
|
Support |
1.6180 |
|
|
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen gained versus the Dollar and the Euro as risk appetite continued to wane and investors seek the safety of the Yen. Final GDP came out weaker with 0.3% versus 0.8% expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.16 and a high of 89.51 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 129.64 and a high of 132.71. Today, Core Machinery Orders are expected with -4.4% versus 10.5% prior.
USD/JPY-Last: 88.00
|
Resistance |
89.17 |
90.10 |
90.77 |
|
Support |
88 |
87.65 |
87 |
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar weakened versus the Dollar as Bank of Canada left the Interest Rate unchanged at 0.25% and Commodity prices continued to weaken lowering the high yielding currency\’s appeal. Housing Starts came out 159K as expected. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0485 and a high of 1.0670. No economic data expected today.
USD/CAD – Last: 1.0647
|
Resistance |
1.0670 |
|
|
|
Support |
1.0611 |
1.0595 |
1.0487 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
GoLearn Forex Analysis 8/12/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on December 8th, 2009
What If the Dollar Takes Off? By GoLearn Forex
NZD/USD:
We are not suggesting the Dollar bulls are running wild, however, every rally in hindsight has a defining moment. Every trader on the street is aware that when the Dollar bulls get set free they are going to come charging. Even if you are a skeptic to the end just the mere massive unwinding of the carry trade would rocket the Greenback.
Our pick would be the NZD and here 3 reasons why:
Performance – Going back to March 9th, 2009 through December 7th, 2009 the top performing G-10 currency (on a percentage basis) against the Greenback has been the Kiwi. It is up 47.24% which is quite shocking given the New Zealand economy is not among the largest of the G-10. To put some perspective on it the EUR is only up 19.59% and the GBP 20.57%
INSERT CHART A
Technical – There are 2 obvious technical reasons that stand out to us. A) A pattern we look for are lower lows and lower highs and vice versa. In the chart below we have depicted the initial emergence of this pattern. B) The Kiwi is already trading below its 50 day MA and on the verge of taking out its 100 day MA, a more significant breakout level than the 50 day MA, which many other G-10 currencies have yet to crack.
INSERT CHART B
Commodities – The Kiwi benefits from rising commodity prices as it is a commodity currency. Commodity prices are quoted in USD so as the Dollar strengthens commodity prices cheapen. If commodity prices cheapen so will the NZD.
Combine these three factors and you may see significant price action on this pair. Of course if the Dollar rallies all currencies will be on their heels but as a trader you are looking for the best trade, and this may be it. We define the best trade as the one with the best risk to return ratio.
Market Flat on Monday by GoLearn Forex
Global Equity Markets were off slightly Monday. A combination of light volume and a lack of any real economic data releases left markets essentially flat as traders continue to be risk averse heading into year end. The Dollar had looked to continue its rally until Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments regarding U.S rates remaining low for an “extended period of time” and his seemingly unimpressed manner regarding unemployment put the rally on hold.
The Dollar held its gains from Friday as the DXY closed down only a couple points to 75.757. Gold finished modestly lower to 1,158.10 while Oil gave up a little over a 1.50 a barrel to finish the day at 73.93.
The CAD moved into positive territory as Building Permits jumped 18%. This once again reaffirmed that Canada is in the midst of substantive recovery. This news comes on the heels of the BOC Rate decision today. Mark Carney, Governor of the BOC, has already expressed his commitment to keep rates on hold at least through mid 2010. In Japan, GDP figures are set to print and in the U.K. Industrial Production number are due out. We expect a good amount of volatility in the market today given recent events and today’s prints.
Upcoming Forex Events for December 8, 2009
CAD Interest Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Previous -0.40%
JPY GDP (QoQ) Forecast 0.90% Previous 1.20%
AUD Home Loans (MoM) Forecast -1.80% Previous 5.10%
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review 08/12/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on December 8th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar continued Friday’s momentum and gained versus most majors after no major news was released. Chairman Bernanke said the weak employment and tight credit will cause a slow expansion. NASDAQ and Dow Jones ended almost flat moving by -0.22% and 0.01% respectively after Chairman Bernanke said it is too early to declare the recovery will last. Crude weakened by -1.96% closing at 73.99$ a barrel as OPEC ministers flag steady output and Gold (XAU) dropped by -0.22% closing at 1158.8$ an ounce on a stronger Dollar. Today, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is expected with 49.5 versus 47.9 prior.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro reached a monthly low versus the Dollar breaking below the 1.48 support level but unable to keep below it. The pair has crossed and remained below the 50 day moving average for the first time in 8 months supporting the Dollar rebound. German Factory Orders came out weaker with -2.1% versus 0.6% expected. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4755 and with a high of 1.4904. Today, German Industrial Production is expected with 1.1% versus 2.7% prior.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4840
|
Resistance |
1.4900 |
1.4970 |
1.5020 |
|
Support |
1.4775 |
1.4735 |
1.4685 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound remained unchanged versus the Dollar and gained slightly versus the Euro as investors await Wednesday announcements from Bank of England. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6312 and a high of 1.6515. Today, Manufacturing Production is expected with 0.5% versus 1.7% prior. Industrial Production is expected with 0.5% versus 1.6% prior. NIESR GDP estimate will be released.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6460
|
Resistance |
1.6500 |
1.6550 |
1.6600 |
|
Support |
1.6390 |
1.6330 |
1.6275 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen gained versus the Dollar as slight declines in world markets along with the Dollar rally lowered risk appetite. Japanese Current Account came out weaker with 1.38T versus 1.6T expected. M2 Money Stock came out weaker with 3.3% versus 3.5% expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 89.04 and a high of 90.42 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.36 and a high of 134.36. Today, Final GDP is expected with 0.8% versus 1.2% prior.
USD/JPY-Last: 89.35
|
Resistance |
89.75 |
90.10 |
90.75 |
|
Support |
89.00 |
88.50 |
88.00 |
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar gained versus the Dollar after Building Permits jumped by 18% versus 1.1% expected. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0482 and a high of 1.0649. Today, Bank of Canada will announce the Interest Rate Decision expected to remain at 0.25%. Housing Starts are expected with 159K versus 157K prior.
USD/CAD – Last: 1.051
|
Resistance |
1.0585 |
1.0645 |
1.0690 |
|
Support |
1.0480 |
1.0450 |
1.0430 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
GoLearn Forex Analysis 7/12/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on December 7th, 2009
Dollar Bear Ready for Hibernation? by GoLearn Forex
The Greenback has been offered across the board since March 2009. As long as risk did not rear its ugly head investors were
selling the dollar in favor of better yielding assets. When risk showed up at the Market’s doorstep the Dollar was right
there with it ready to regain market control. We saw this a week and half ago when Dubai spooked the market with a needed
debt restructuring.
The pattern we have seen for the last 9 months has been equities advancing as the dollar slides. Equities would advance on
positive (or at least less negative) economic data. The correlation between increasingly better news and the Greenback was
therefore negative. When normal markets are in control positive news typically strengthens a currency. What we witnessed
Friday may be an early indicator that the Dollar bear is finally ready to hibernate.
Friday brought us 2 very important prints from the U.S. The first was the Change in Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment
Rate. The Change in Nonfarm Payrolls fell by just 11k and the Unemployment Rate fell from 10.2% to 10%. This is obviously
positive news for the U.S economy and the Global economy as well. Stock’s advanced, but this time the Greenback would not
yield any ground instead it posted gains on all its G-10 rivals. The Dollar move was positively correlated with the
economic news, something not seen in 9 months. There was a tangible shift in market sentiment regarding the timing of a
potential rate increase. Originally, forecasts were calling for an increase in Q4, however, analysts now think it may come
sooner.
It is not by coincidence that a number of pairs slid almost exactly to Support levels before firming against the Dollar. A
breakthrough of support would most likely trigger a massive Dollar rally, something the market is not whole heartily a
believer in at this point in time. Rather, the move on Friday was one of caution as it may be the first signal the Bull is
getting ready to run.
Let’s analyze current key technical levels and what the trading implications are:
EUR – Friday’s close put the EUR right at the 50 SMA. The 50 SMA has been holding as support for nearly 9 months. An
entire candle below the 50 SMA would trigger a Short EUR entry while a quick bounce off of support levels would trigger a
a resumption of our EUR Long
INSERT EUR CHART

AUD – Similar to the EUR, the 50 SMA has been holding firm support. Therefore, a Short AUD entry would be triggered
with the appearance of an entire candle below support. We would resume a Long AUD position with a bounce off of support.
INSERT AUD CHART

GBP – The Cable has been trading the range but has not dipped below the 50 SMA since mid September at which point it
gave up over 4.5% to the Dollar. As with the EUR and AUD, an appearance of entire candle below the 50 SMA would trigger a
Short GBP entry.
INSERT GBP CHART

Obviously one occurrence hardly represents an entire shift in trend, however, a shift in trend starts with one occurrence.
Continue to monitor the correlation between economic news and the Dollar. In addition pay special attention to support and
resistance levels on the majors, as a breach of S&R may signal future changes and should be capitalized on.
Good News for the Greenback Finally Pushes Gold Down a Few Pegs by GoLearn Forex
Gold tumbled on Friday as better than expected Unemployment and Nonfarm Payroll figures helped prop up the Greenback. Gold
fell 5.1% during intra-day trading to a session low of 1,150. Crude Oil was mixed on Friday as it originally bounced higher
on the positive news, however, it gave up its gains and then some as the Dollar firmed throughout the day. Both Gold and Oil
are quoted in Dollars ,so as the Dollar strengthens it sends commodity prices lower.
Global Equity Markets advanced Friday finishing the week in positive territory. The DJIA added 22.75 points to close at
10,388.90. At the moment Equity Futures are pointing lower ahead of the open. Economic data releases will be on the lighter
side for Monday although the remainder of the week will yield some interesting price action as Canada, New Zealand,
Switzerland, and the U.K are on deck for rate decisions.
The DXY soared to highs not seen since early November as the DXY touched 75.911 during the Friday session. Traders were
unwinding some bets and covering shorts as the positive employment data gave rise to concerns that the U.S Federal Reserve
may raise rates sooner then later. With little economic data due out today do not expect much price action.
Important Forex Events for December 7, 2009
EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
CAD Building Permits (MoM) Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.60%
USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
AUD Current Account Forecast -17.00B Previous -13.30B
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review 07/12/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on December 7th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar rallied versus all majors after Nonfarm Payrolls came out better than expected with -11K versus -119K expected and -111 K prior. The reverse correlation between U.S economic data and the Dollar prices seems to have ended. The U.S jobs market is improving and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the rates if the improvement continues. Unemployment Rate came out 10% versus 10.2% expected and prior. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 0.98% and 0.22% respectively after the better employment data. Crude weakened by -1.29% closing at 75.76$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) dropped by -3.99% closing at 1160.2$ an ounce on stronger Dollar and weaker inflation fears. Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke will speak in Washington. Consumer Credit is expected with -9.6B versus -14.8B prior.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro fell as the Dollar rallied after Nonfarm Payrolls data showed a massive improvement raising expectations for a rate increase in the Dollar, lowering the demand for the Euro. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4821 and with a high of 1.5090. Today, German Factory Orders are expected with 0.6% versus 0.9% prior. ECB President Trichet will speak in Brussels.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4870
|
Resistance |
1.4925 |
1.4970 |
1.5000 |
|
Support |
1.4800 |
1.4765 |
1.4735 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound slid versus the Dollar after the better than expected employment data in the U.S raised expectation for a future rate increase in the Dollar. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6422 and a high of 1.6673. Today, Halifax House Price Index is expected with 40.50 versus 40.90 prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6470
|
Resistance |
1.6525 |
1.6590 |
1.6620 |
|
Support |
1.6390 |
1.6357 |
1.6275 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen plunged versus the Dollar and the Euro after better than expected U.S employment data led to less demand for the Yen as a Safe Haven as economic conditions improved. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 87.99 and a high of 90.76 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.49 and a high of 134.56. Today, Japanese Current Account is expected with 1.6T versus 1.34T prior. M2 Money Stock is expected with 3.5% versus 3.3% prior.
USD/JPY-Last: 90.25
|
Resistance |
90.75 |
91.35 |
91.65 |
|
Support |
89.70 |
89.154 |
88.75 |
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar remained almost unchanged versus the Dollar after better than expected employment data in the U.S and Canada left the pair unchanged. Canadian Unemployment Rate came out 8.5% versus 8.6% expected and Employment Change showed a surprising rise of 79.1K more workers versus 15K expected. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0433 and a high of 1.0595. Today, Building Permits are expected to rise by 1.1% versus 1.6% prior.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0565
|
Resistance |
1..0615 |
1.0645 |
1.0690 |
|
Support |
1.0515 |
1.0480 |
1.0460 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com