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Daily Review 18/11/2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar gained versus most majors as Industrial Production came out weaker, lowering risk appetite. Industrial Production came out 0.1% versus 0.4% expected. PPI came out weaker with 0.3% versus 0.6% forecast. TIC Long-Term Purchases came out better with 40.7B versus 27.3B expected. NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.27% and 0.29%. Crude gained by 0.68% closing at 79.44$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) remained almost unchanged with 0.16% change closing at 1140.5$ an ounce. Today, Building Permits are expected higher with 0.59M versus 0.57M prior and Core CPI is expected with 0.1% versus 0.2% prior. Housing Starts are expected higher with 0.61M versus 0.59M and Crude Inventories are expected with 1.2M versus 1.8M prior.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro weakened versus the Dollar and the Pound as risk appetite weakened and ECB\’s president Trichet said a strong Dollar is important for the world economy. European Trade Balance came out better than expected with 6.8B versus -0.9B expected. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4806 and with a high of 1.4998. Today, European Current Account is expected with 0.6B versus -1.3B prior. ECB President Trichet will speak in Frankfurt.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4870

Resistance

1.4900

1.4925

1.4955

Support

1.4810

1.4740

1.4703

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound remained almost unchanged versus the Dollar as CPI figures came out better than expected but Industrial Production in the U.S lowered investors Risk Appetite. CPI came out 1.5% versus 1.4% expected and RPI came out -0.8% versus -0.9% expected. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6755 and a high of 1.6872. Today, MPC Meeting Minutes will be released. CBI Industrial Order Expectations are expected with -47 versus -51 prior.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6800

Resistance

1.6850

1.6900

1.6955

Support

1.6750

1.6670

1.6625

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen gained versus the Euro and weakened versus the Dollar as risk appetite lowered after Industrial Production in the U.S came out weaker than expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.73 and a high of 89.53 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.44 and a high of 133.58. Today, All Industries Activity is expected with -0.1% versus 0.9% prior.

USD/JPY-Last: 89.17

Resistance

89.65

90.00

90.18

Support

88.80

88.60

88.25

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar dropped as Risk Appetite weakened following U.S production data. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0464 and a high of 1.0617. Today, Canadian CPI is expected with 0.2% versus 0% prior and Core CPI is expected with 0% versus 0.3% prior.

CAD/USD – Last: 1.0535

Resistance

1.0620

1.0680

1.0735

Support

1.0475

1.0450

1.0425

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

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GoLearn Forex Analysis 17/12/2009

Is the CAD Headed for a Breakout?  By GoLearn Forex

USD/CAD:

The Canadian Dollar from a technical standpoint is giving every indication it is going to breakout.   Price has been consolidating for several weeks.  You can see more clearly the consolidation in the Chart below depicted by the orange triangle.

Typically we draw a triangle where only one side represents the slope.  However, the triangle drawn below is indicative of investor’s uncertainty with regards to the CAD.  The Canadian economy is holding strong.  The CAD is a commodity currency and will rise and fall as commodity prices rise and fall (in particular Oil).  The Dollar has been rallying which should mean a weaker Loonie, but this rally stems from positive U.S economic data.  The U.S economy and that of their northern neighbor are linked to a certain extent as they feed off of one another.  Therefore, positive U.S data should also be good for the CAD.  Therein lies the conflict and thus you have a dual sided sloping triangle.

CAD1612

The CAD is currently trading above its 50 day MA.  Similar to the AUD and NZD it failed to breach the 100 day MA in spite of the Dollar rally.  As the CAD wedges itself into the triangle we are looking for the following to occur in order to trip an entry signal.  If the Loonie produces a candle south of the 50 day MA and south of the bottom slope of the triangle then look to enter a Long CAD position.  Alternatively, if the CAD produces a candle body north up the upper slope of the triangle and the 100 day MA then enter a Short CAD position.  Lastly, if a Short CAD signal triggers we see a near term take profit level at 1.0880 coinciding with the Fibonacci 23.6% Retrace level.  We view this level as strong point of resistance.

Oil Takes Off by GoLearn Forex

The FOMC meeting came and went without stirring the waters.  In the Euro-zone and London, Equity Markets finished their sessions in positive territory ahead of the highly anticipated U.S FED rate decision.  The accompanying FOMC statement was intentionally left mostly unchanged so as not to roil markets. It served its purpose well as the DJIA finished the day off slightly lower by 10.88 points to close at 10,441.12 while the tech heavy NASDAQ closed up 5.86 points to 2,206.91.

In the Currency Markets the Dollar followed Equity Markets finishing the session nearly flat against its G-7 counterparts.  The AUD gave up .61% still reeling from CB comments that took on a more dovish tone in regards to any near term future rate hikes.

Oil soared to 73.54 during intra-day trading before leveling off the day at 72.66, a gain of $1.97.  Gold climbed $12.70 an ounce to 1,137.90.  On the Agricultural front Soybeans, Cotton and Sugar continued to rally while Copper, Wheat and Corn declined on Dollar strength.

On the economic data docket for today we have the BOJ rate decision to be announced, although no change is expected.  In the U.K, Retails Sales are set to be released while in Canada CPI data will hit the wire.  In the U.S, Jobless Claims will print as will the measure of Leading Indicators and the Philadelphia FED survey.

Upcoming Forex Events for December 17, 2009

GBP  Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast  0.50%  Previous  0.40%

CAD  Core CPI (MoM) Forecast  0.10%  Previous  0.10%

USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast    470.00K  Previous  474.00K

JPY Interest Rate Decision  Forecast  0.10%  Previous  0.10%

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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Daily Review 17/12/2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar gained massively across the board on the day the Federal Reserve decided to leave rates as expected at 0.25%. The Dollar rose after the announcement and continued its gaining after Asia markets opened. Earlier, the Building Permits came out 0.58M better than expected 0.57M. CPI came out unchanged as expected at 0.4%. Wall Street finished mix after being unable to hold in the positive side. Stocks turned to the negative after the statement of the FED about monetary policy. The Dow Jones fell 0.10% and NASDAQ rose by 0.28%. Crude Oil kept gaining for the second day closing at 72.77$ a barrel after the oil inventories showed a 3.7M drop. Gold (XAU) gained also closing at 1137$ an ounce. Today, the Initial Jobless Claims expected at 470K vs. 474K previously. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index expected at 16 vs. 16.7 previously.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro fell against the Dollar and the Pound, breaking through the 1.4500 and 1.4400 support levels, after the CPI came out 0.5% worse than expected 0.6%. The breakdown of this level could bring the pair to fresh new lows. Manufacturing PMI came out 51.6 better than expected 51.5. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4379 and a high of 1.4590. Today, the Italian Unemployment Rate expected 7.7% vs. 7.4% previously.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4410

Resistance

1.4500

1.4600

1.4675

Support

1.4345

1.4300

1.4235

British Pound (GBP)

The Cable was the best performer among majors. GBP/USD momentarily broke above 1.6370 and rose to 1.6404, reaching a one-week high but then pulled back, breaking below the 1.6300 support level, reaching lows of 1.6230. Claimant Count Change came out -6.3K better than the expected 14K. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6230 and a high of 1.6409. Today, the Retail Sales expected at 0.5% vs. 0.4% previously. The CBI DTS expected at 16 vs. 13 previously.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6275

Resistance

1.6425

1.6475

1.6525

Support

1.6275

1.6210

1.6170

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen fell against the Pound and the Dollar. The Dollar reached a one-week high against the Yen as the Federal Reserve said deterioration in the labor market is abating while it will keep its low rate for an extended period. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 89.37 and a high of 89.96. Today, the interest rate decision of The Bank of Japan (BOJ) expected unchanged at 0.1%.

USD/JPY-Last: 89.65

Resistance

89.95

90.40

90.75

Support

89.30

88.75

88.35

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Canadian currency gained as crude oil and stocks rose. It was little changed after policy makers in the nation and the U.S. made commitments to keep interest rates at historic lows. The Manufacturing Sales came out 2% better than expected 0.5%. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0570 and a high of 1.0641. Today, The Core CPI expected unchanged at 0.1%. The Foreign Securities Purchases expected at 10B vs. 13.59B previously.

USD/CAD – Last: 1.0615

Resistance

1.0640

1.0670

1.0700

Support

1.0570

1.0550

1.0515

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

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GoLearn Forex Analysis 16/12/2009

Review Key Support and Resistance Levels for USD by GoLearn Forex

Key Support & Resistance (S/R) Levels:

As the Greenback continues to rally heading into the end of the year we thought it would be a good time to review a couple key S/R levels.  Traders generate S/R based on a number of factors.  One key factor is based on the tenor of the chart the trader is using.  A trader using a tick or minute chart will be less concerned about S/R generated from a 4 hour chart that is 100+ pips from the current handle.  However, that same trader will want to know where the longer term S/R levels sit. If price moves towards those points he can integrate them into his trading strategies thereby profiting and or avoiding losses.

GBP/USD:

The Cable is currently sitting below its 100 day MA which generates an already negative bias.  A candle body below 1.6198 would generate the next Short entry point  Near term profit taking would be the 200 day MA.  If the 200 day MA is breached we would target the low of this range bound period near 1.5683 which also represents the Fibonacci  38.2% Retrace level.  The 38.2% Retrace level was generated from the Sterlings turn around in January of this year.

AUD/USD:

The Aussie has shown great resilience and for good reason.  The RBA had taken a hawkish stance on rates as it was amongst the first to raise rates.  The Australian economy is in relatively good shape.  Additionally, the AUD is a commodity currency and it has ridden the commodity rally. Currently the AUD is sitting just below the 50 day MA.  A candle body appearing below .8944 equal to the Fibonacci 76.4% Retrace level, which also coincides with recent support levels would trigger a near term Short entry.  We would increase the Short position with a close below the 100 day MA, currently holding at .8834.  A long signal would be generated with a close well above near term resistance at .9325.

With the EUR taking a sharp nose dive yesterday it prompts us to look at recent relative price levels on the G-7.  The EUR/USD is the most commonly traded pair in the world.  The price of the EUR has broad implications on the relative value of other G-7 currencies.  Although the below data can be shown graphically it is easier to view price differentials in a table.  If the EUR is a leading indicator of relative  value then the CAD, AUD, and GBP may be in for a minor drop.

Historical

Date  EUR  CAD  AUD  NZD  JPY  GBP

2009-10-02 1.4576  1.0797 0.8652 0.7160  89.8050 1.5946

2009-10-01 1.4545  1.0839  0.8697  0.7149  89.6050 1.5955

2009-09-30 1.4640  1.0695  0.8828  0.7232  89.7050 1.5982

2009-09-29 1.4587  1.0846  0.8703  0.7143  90.0885 1.5961

Current

Date  EUR  CAD  AUD  NZD  JPY  GBP

2009-12-15 1.4533  1.0611 0.9067 0.7224  89.6355 1.6272

chart

US Producer Prices Climb by GoLearn Forex

Global Equity Markets were mixed on Tuesday as Dubai continues to sort out its debt repayment obligations.  In the U.S Producer Prices climbed 1.8% which was more than double expectations.  This caused stocks to retreat as it may engage the U.S Fed to raise rates out of necessity instead of a planned withdrawal from its current quantitative easing policies.  The DJIA slid 49.05 points to close at 10,452. Ahead of the rate decision today traders have consolidated positions as markets may move drastically depending on what language the Fed uses.

There are a number of other economic data releases on the docket for today.  Oil traders will be watching Crude Oil Inventory figures.  CPI data as well as Housing Starts and Building Permits will also be on the wire today.  In the U.K Jobless Claims will print although no major changes are expected.  GDP in Australia has already printed slightly below expectations.

The Greenback continued to advance against its G-10 counterparts with the AUD giving up 1.15% for the day.  The DXY closed above the 100 day MA to 76.961 helping to legitimizing the recent rally.  Gold and Oil were essentially unchanged finishing the U.S session at 1.125.20 and 70.69 respectively.

Upcoming Forex Events for December 16, 2009

EUR CPI (YoY) Forecast   8.00%  Previous  7.80%

USD Core CPI (MoM) Forecast  0.20%  Previous  0.20%

USD CPI (MoM) Forecast    0.40%  Previous  0.30%

USD Interest Rate Decision  Forecast  0.25%  Previous  0.25%

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Daily Review 16/12/2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar gained versus 15 of the 16 majors as Industrial Production rose by 0.8% versus 0.6% expected signaling U.S economy is expanding. The FOMC is still expected to keep the Interest Rate today at 0.25% but more economists expect a rate increase to 0.5% until June 2010. PPI came out stronger with 1.8% versus 0.8% expected and TIC Long Term Purchases came out weaker with 20.7B versus 38.3B prior. NASDAQ and Dow Jones declined by -0.50% and -0.47% respectively as wholesale inflation raised concerns the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates. Crude gained by 0.17% closing at 70.81$ a barrel ending a 9 day declining streak. Gold (XAU) gained by 0.29% closing at 1125.70$ an ounce. Today, Building Permits are expected with 0.58M versus 0.55M prior. CPI is expected with 0.4% versus 0.3% prior and Core CPI is expected with 0.1% versus 0.2% prior. Investors are waiting for the FOMC Interest Rate decision that is expected to remain at 0.25%.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro fell versus the Dollar and the Pound after weaker French CPI results, which triggered the Euro\’s decline. German ZEW Economic Sentiment came out 50.4 slightly better than 50.1 expected but ZEW Economic Sentiment came out weaker with 48 versus 50.9 expected. More countries in the Euro zone show signs the recession is still alive. Greece is struggling with its debt and Austria nationalized Hypo Bank. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4503 and a high of 1.4659. Today, German and French Manufacturing PMI are expected slightly stronger. CPI and Core CPI are expected unchanged with 0.6% and 1.2% accordingly.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4535

Resistance

1.4575

1.4625

1.4685

Support

1.4500

1.4445

1.4410

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound weakened versus the Dollar but gained versus the Euro after CPI came out 1.9% versus 1.8% expected. The CPI figures show inflation is advancing and the U.K won\’t be able to keep interest rates at their record lows. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6205 and a high of 1.6319. Today, Claimant Count Change is expected with 13.9K versus 12.9K and MPC Member Miles will speak in London.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6275

Resistance

1.6315

1.6350

1.6380

Support

1.6210

1.6160

1.6105

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen dropped versus the Dollar and the Euro as a near US interest rate increase seems likely in the upcoming year. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.61 and a high of 89.95 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 129.54 and a high of 130.73. No economic data expected today in Japan.

USD/JPY-Last: 89.65

Resistance

89.95

90.40

90.75

Support

89.30

88.75

88.35

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar followed the trend and fell against the Dollar but gained versus most other majors as Crude prices rose slightly ending its 9 day decline. Leading Index came out better with 1.3% versus 0.6% and Labor Productivity came out weaker with -0.2% versus -0.4% expected. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0552 and a high of 1.0611. Today, Manufacturing Sales is expected with 1% versus 1.4% prior.

USD/CAD – Last: 1.0615

Resistance

1.0670

1.0700

1.0750

Support

1.0580

1.0550

1.0515

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

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GoLearn Forex Analysis 15/11/2009

NZD Beginning to Falter by GoLearn Forex

NZD/USD:

The New Zealand Dollar is starting to falter and like most of its G-10 counterparts it is holding at pivotal levels against the Greenback.  One slip either way may send the currency tumbling or ready to resume its advance on the Dollar.  We have mentioned the Kiwi in the past as we feel it may yield the biggest percentage loss when the Dollar does finally rally.

In the graph below we see the formation of a downward sloping Triangle beginning to emerge.  The Kiwi has been riding the 50 day SMA as support on its path to .7600.  You can observe that NZD peaked in late October but after 3 attempts it has failed to break the October high.

DEC-14-NZD

Short term support has been holding near .7100 represented by the bottom leg of the triangle.  As the hypotenuse converges on near term support the more likely it is that a breakout will occur in the direction of the slope.  We have also diagrammed a pattern we use often to identify trend and that is a step pattern whereby there are lower high’s and lower lows (or vice versa as the case maybe).  Typically we like to see more obvious lower lows than what the Kiwi has shown us thus far.

The NZD is currently sitting below its 50 day MA, which we mentioned prior, represented support for the NZD’s move over the last 9 months.  During the Dollar’s rally last week the Kiwi was able to bounce off of the 100 day MA but was not able to bounce back above the 50 SMA.  As price action moves into the wedge of the triangle it may force price below the 100 SMA.

For good measure we added a Fibonacci Retrace starting back in March when the Kiwi dipped below      .50 running through its most recent high in October when the NZD struck .7635.  This data range produces the 23.6% Fibo Retrace at a handle of .6988.  To trigger a strong short signal the Kiwi would need to take out the 100 day MA, near term support (the base leg of the triangle), and the Fibo 23.6% level, as we then target a .6500 handle.  In order to resume a Long NZD position at this point the NZD would need to break north of the hypotenuse, the 50 day MA, and near term resistance at .7525.

Short term support has been holding near .7100 represented by the bottom leg of the triangle.  As the hypotenuse converges on near term support the more likely it is that a breakout will occur in the direction of the slope.  We have also diagrammed a pattern we use often to identify trend and that is a step pattern whereby there are lower high’s and lower lows (or vice versa as the case maybe).  Typically we like to see more obvious lower lows than what the Kiwi has shown us thus far.

The NZD is currently sitting below its 50 day MA, which we mentioned prior, represented support for the NZD’s move over the last 9 months.  During the Dollar’s rally last week the Kiwi was able to bounce off of the 100 day MA but was not able to bounce back above the 50 SMA.  As price action moves into the wedge of the triangle it may force price below the 100 SMA.

For good measure we added a Fibonacci Retrace starting back in March when the Kiwi dipped below      .50 running through its most recent high in October when the NZD struck .7635.  This data range produces the 23.6% Fibo Retrace at a handle of .6988.  To trigger a strong short signal the Kiwi would need to take out the 100 day MA, near term support (the base leg of the triangle), and the Fibo 23.6% level, as we then target a .6500 handle.  In order to resume a Long NZD position at this point the NZD would need to break north of the hypotenuse, the 50 day MA, and near term resistance at .7525.

Abu Dhabi Sending Financial Aid for Dubai World by GoLearn Forex

World Equity Markets gained some ground Monday amid assurances from Abu Dhabi that they would provide $10 billion in immediate financial aid to ensure Dubai World meets its $4.1 billion debt obligation due yesterday.  The DJIA closed a shade above 10,500 after picking up 29.55 points.

The Greenback gave up a little ground yesterday as the DXY was down marginally to 75.352.  Gold advanced slightly to 1,126.70 as the dollar showed some weakness. Oil was unchanged as it continued to hold below $70 a barrel.

In the U.K CPI data is set to print today.  The Euro-zone’s Current Sentiment/Survey will publish today.  In the U.S a number of economic releases are slated for today; Crude Oil Inventories, Gasoline Inventories, Total Net TIC Flows, Empire Manufacturing Index, and lastly PPI figures will print.  In light of the Dollar’s recent rally expect that traders will be watching these numbers very carefully ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision.

Upcoming Forex Events for December 15, 2009

EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Forecast  50.20  Previous  51.10

CAD Leading Indicators (MoM) Forecast    0.60%  Previous  0.70%

USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions  Forecast    43.00B  Previous  40.70B

AUD GDP (QoQ)   Forecast  0.40%  Previous  0.60%

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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Daily Review 15/12/2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar weakened slightly versus the majors as the Dollar rally took a relief. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 0.99% and 0.28% respectively as Dubai\’s bailout calmed investor fears. Crude weakened for the 9th straight day lowering by -0.43% closing at 69.57$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) gained by 0.54% closing at 1123.30$ an ounce. Today, PPI is expected with 0.8% versus 0.3% prior. Industrial Production is expected with 0.6% versus 0.1% prior. TIC Long Term Purchases is expected with 38.3B versus 40.7B prior.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro gained slightly versus the Dollar as Dubai World\’s bailout eased banks concerns of major write downs. Industrial Production came out as expected with -0.6%. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4607 and with a high of 1.4685. Today, German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected weaker with 50.1 versus 51.1 prior.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4655

Resistance

1.4685

1.4775

1.4825

Support

1.4585

1.4535

1.4470

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound gained slightly versus the Dollar but is still unable to break above or below the 1.6350 and 1.62 range. RICS House Price Balance came out weaker with 35% versus 39% forecast. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6188 and a high of 1.6324. Today, CPI is expected with 1.8% versus 1.5% prior.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6300

Resistance

1.6340

1.6380

1.6425

Support

1.6250

1.6190

1.6150

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen gained versus the Dollar and other majors after Tanken Manufacturing Index came out stronger than expected. The Yen is set to replace the Dollar in the Carry Trading as borrowing costs in Japan became almost as cheap as U.S loans. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.32 and a high of 89.29 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 129.18 and a high of 130.64. Today, Tertiary Industry Activity is expected with 0.5% versus -0.5% prior.

USD/JPY-Last: 88.75

Resistance

89.00

89.25

89.85

Support

88.35

88.00

87.40

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar remained unchanged versus the Dollar as no major news was released and Crude prices were merely changed. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0484 and a high of 1.0623. Today, Leading Index is expected with 0.6% versus 0.7% prior and Labor Productivity is expected with -0.4% versus 0.0% prior.

USD/CAD – Last: 1.0580

Resistance

1.0635

1.0670

1.0700

Support

1.0550

1.0515

1.0480

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

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GoLearn Forex Analysis 14/12/2009

Euro – Headed for a Tailspin?  By GoLearn Forex

EUR/USD:

The EUR is perilously close to falling into a tailspin.  We have been stating for some time that a candle appearing below the 50 day Moving Average (MA) would generate a strong signal for a Short entry.  As you can see in the Graph below that signal occurred last week, with the 50 day MA currently holding at 1.4880 while the EUR is trading at 1.46.

The EUR is now on the cusp of an even larger fall. It closed last Friday’s session at the 100 day MA an even more significant breach than the 50 day MA.  Perhaps even more troublesome for the EUR is that it is just a hairsbreadth above 61.8% Fibonacci level at a handle of 1.4621.

INSERT CHART EUR

DEC-13-EUR

A close below the 61.8% Fibo level coupled with a close below the 100 day MA as they converge may equal real trouble for the EUR.  The EUR has not been south of the 100 day MA since April 2009 which coincidently occurred when the 100 day MA and Fibo 23.6% level converged.  The EUR proceeded to advance 14.6% from that point.  We therefore target the 50% Fibo level with a handle of 1.4184 as the next support level should the EUR breach the 61.8% Fibo level.

USD/CHF:

The CHF is another currency holding at a very pivotal level.  With Friday’s session closing just below the 100 day MA the CHF is trying to hold its ground against the Greenback.  The Swiss Franc has been one of the benefactors of Gold’s jump in value.  However, as the Dollar has rallied and Gold prices have begun to fall so has the CHF.

The Franc closed above its 50 day MA for the first time since August, representing only the 3rd such close since April of 2009. This coincided with it’s last close above the 100 day MA.  The Franc has another issue to contend with and that is the 23.6% Fibonacci Retrace level created from the CHF low of 1.20 back in March of 2009.

INSERT CHART CHF

DEC-13-CHF

If the CHF closes above the 100 day MA and the 23.6% Fibonacci level at a handle of 1.0402 is breached then we would expect the CHF to test support at the 38.2% Fibo level or 1.0701.

Bona Fide Recovery Seems in Order by GoLearn Forex

Global Equity Markets closed higher as the prospect for a bona fide recovery now seems assured.  The Markets were able to shake off credit fears and focus on continued positive economic data coming out of the U.S.  On Wall Street the DJIA closed up 65.67 points to 10,471.50 on better than expected Advanced Retail Sales figures.

The Greenback continued it rally as it advanced on positive economic data, breaking the 9 month long “positive equities to poor dollar” correlation, for a second time in 1 week.  The DXY touched 76.725 before retreating slightly to close at 76.573.  Another positive session for the Greenback and it may take out the 100 day MA.

In the commodity space both Gold and Oil were down.  Gold lost 15.60 to close Friday’s session at 1,115.40 while Oil closed just below $70 a barrel for the first time since September 29th.  Gold has lost nearly 9.5% since its high on December 3rd and is just a few dollars away from closing below its 50 day Moving Average.

In the Euro-zone for Monday, Employment figures will be published on Tuesday.  U.S.  PPI numbers will print as well as the Empire Manufacturing data.  In Australia, GDP numbers will hit the wire on Wednesday, as will Housing Starts and Building Permits in the U.S.  However, investors will be tuned in on Wednesday to the FOMC rate decision.  Although no change in rate is expected, traders are hoping for the accompanying statement to shed light on future rate hikes  and economic policy as continued positive economic data continues to print.

Upcoming Forex Events for December 14, 2009-12-14

CHF PPI (MoM) Forecast    0.20%  Previous  -0.40%

EUR Industrial Production (MoM) Forecast    -0.50%  Previous  0.30%

CAD Capacity Utilization Rate  Forecast    67.80%  Previous  67.40%

AUD  RBA Meeting Minutes

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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Daily Review 14/12/2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar continued rallying versus most majors on Friday after Retail Sales and Michigan\’s Consumer Sentiment came out stronger than expected signaling economy is recovering improving Fed Rate Outlook. NASDAQ ended almost flat with -0.03% change and Dow Jones gained by 0.63%. Crude weakened by -1.39% dropping below 70$ for the first time since October closing at 69.87$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) dropped by -0.91% closing at 1114.55$ an ounce on a stronger Dollar. No economic data expected today.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro continued falling versus the Dollar reaching a 2 month low below the 1.46 support level as better economic data in the US led investors to expect a near rate increase. Ireland and Greece are facing major debt concerns that may lead to their exit from the Euro-Zone. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4586 and with a high of 1.4776. Today, Industrial Production is expected with -0.6% versus 0.3% prior.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4620

Resistance

1.4700

1.4775

1.4825

Support

1.4585

1.4535

1.4470

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound dropped slightly versus the Dollar after PPI Input and Output came out weaker than the forecast. The UK budget deficit keeps growing as the government keeps spending money to spur the economy preventing the Pound from gaining back. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6196 and a high of 1.6338. Today, RICS House Price Balance is expected with 39% versus 34% prior.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6200

Resistance

1.6275

1.6340

1.6380

Support

1.6160

1.6120

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen weakened versus the Dollar and the Euro as economic conditions improve and a future rate increase in the U.S seems more likely. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.26 and a high of 89.81 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 129.97 and a high of 131.59. No economic data expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 88.40

Resistance

89.30

89.85

90.10

Support

88.25

88.00

87.75

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar weakened versus the Dollar as Crude dropped beneath 70$ a barrel on stronger Dollar sending the high yield commodity related Australian and Canadian Dollar lower. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0484 and a high of 1.0623. No major economic data expected today.

USD/CAD – Last: 1.0610

Resistance

1.0630

1.0650

1.0690

Support

1.0540

1.0500

1.0480

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

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Daily Review 11/12/2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar traded with a narrow range versus most majors as mixed data was released in the US. The initial Jobless claims rose by 17K coming at 474K but the trade balance deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly narrowed in October to -32.9B as rebounding economies overseas and a weaker dollar pushed exports up for a sixth consecutive month. NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose by 0.33% and 0.67% respectively, following the trade balance. Crude oil decreased by 0.2% closing at 70.54$ a barrel. The oil traded the first time this month below 70$. Gold (XAU) rose by 0.5% closing at 1125.7$ an ounce. Today, Retail Sales is expected at 0.6% vs. 1.4% previously and Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected at 69.1 vs. 67.4.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro rose slightly versus the Dollar after European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said he will withdraw stimulus measures in a faster pace than economists anticipated, clearing the way for higher interest rate next year. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4682 and with a high of 1.4760. Today, ECB President Trichet Speaks.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4725

Resistance

1.4760

1.4866

1.4900

Support

1.4675

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound stayed almost unchanged versus the Dollar and the Euro after The Bank of England stuck to its plan to buy as much as 200 billion pounds in bonds and held the interest rate at a record low of 0.5%. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6213 and with a high of 1.6346. Today, PPI Input is expected at 0.6% vs. 2.6% prior.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6312

Resistance

1.6346

1.6472

1.6660

Support

1.6230

1.6167

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen declined against the Dollar and Euro, as U.S. continuing claims for unemployment benefits fell to a nine-month low, encouraging demand for higher-yielding assets. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 87.73 and with a high of 88.45.No important data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 88.70

Resistance

89.17

89.60

Support

87.72

87.36

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar strengthened for a second day versus the Dollar, touching the strongest level this week as stocks gained and the nation unexpectedly posted a trade surplus. Trade Balance came out better than expected at 0.4B vs. -0.6B forecast. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0478 and with a high of 1.0582. Today, NHPI the previous data came out at 0.5%.

CAD/USD – Last: 1.0512

Resistance

1.0550

1.0590

1.0648

Support

1.0482

1.0433

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

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