Archive for November, 2009

GoLearnForex Analysis 18/11/2009

USD/JPY:

The Yen has lost ground to every other currency in the G-10 except the Dollar, since March of 2009.  The BOJ has always favored a weak currency as it supports their large export business which accounts for over 20% of their GDP.

INSERT CHART a

The Chart above is a daily JPY chart looking back through this past March. Although the Yen trended down it was extremely volatile through August.  After mid August it continued  a less volatile trend towards a handle of 88.00 before retracing to 92.00. Since mid October it has been struggling to breach near term resistance at 88.00.

On the daily JPY chart below you can see we added Bollinger Bands (BB). BB are very good during range trading and very dangerous during trending markets.  BB are best understood  as a mean or avg as indicated by the yellow dotted line.  The red lines represent a standard deviation from the mean. In short you expect price to be somewhere between the 2 red lines.  When price nears one of the bands you expect it to return toward the mean, what traders call a reversal.

INSERT CHART b

Notice that from March through August the same period of time shown on Chart A above that price moves precisely the way we expect with BB.  The green swing line shows price moving from one band to the next. However, towards the end of August price does not move towards the mean as the JPY has started to trend.  This is why BB are difficult to use during trending markets as we do not expect price to move back towards the mean.

There are a number of tools available to you via your charting platforms that can help you isolate when to expect the BB reversal versus a false reversal signal.  On the lower half of Chart b the Relative Strength Index (RSI) helps traders identify when a trend  is strong and may continue.  The red vertical line that runs through the false reversal signal also shows that the RSI indicates we are in the footholds of a strong trend. Typically an RSI descending after breaching 70 (over bought) or ascending after breaching 30 (oversold) indicate a weakening trend.

Currently the JPY is sitting on the lower band of the BB and the RSI reads low in terms of trend strength.  Additionally, the Yen is bumping up against R1 and R2 is fairly close as well.  For now it appears that the trend has slowed.

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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Daily Review 18/11/2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar gained versus most majors as Industrial Production came out weaker, lowering risk appetite. Industrial Production came out 0.1% versus 0.4% expected. PPI came out weaker with 0.3% versus 0.6% forecast. TIC Long-Term Purchases came out better with 40.7B versus 27.3B expected. NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.27% and 0.29%. Crude gained by 0.68% closing at 79.44$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) remained almost unchanged with 0.16% change closing at 1140.5$ an ounce. Today, Building Permits are expected higher with 0.59M versus 0.57M prior and Core CPI is expected with 0.1% versus 0.2% prior. Housing Starts are expected higher with 0.61M versus 0.59M and Crude Inventories are expected with 1.2M versus 1.8M prior.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro weakened versus the Dollar and the Pound as risk appetite weakened and ECB\’s president Trichet said a strong Dollar is important for the world economy. European Trade Balance came out better than expected with 6.8B versus -0.9B expected. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4806 and with a high of 1.4998. Today, European Current Account is expected with 0.6B versus -1.3B prior. ECB President Trichet will speak in Frankfurt.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4870

Resistance

1.4900

1.4925

1.4955

Support

1.4810

1.4740

1.4703

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound remained almost unchanged versus the Dollar as CPI figures came out better than expected but Industrial Production in the U.S lowered investors Risk Appetite. CPI came out 1.5% versus 1.4% expected and RPI came out -0.8% versus -0.9% expected. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6755 and a high of 1.6872. Today, MPC Meeting Minutes will be released. CBI Industrial Order Expectations are expected with -47 versus -51 prior.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6800

Resistance

1.6850

1.6900

1.6955

Support

1.6750

1.6670

1.6625

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen gained versus the Euro and weakened versus the Dollar as risk appetite lowered after Industrial Production in the U.S came out weaker than expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.73 and a high of 89.53 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.44 and a high of 133.58. Today, All Industries Activity is expected with -0.1% versus 0.9% prior.

USD/JPY-Last: 89.17

Resistance

89.65

90.00

90.18

Support

88.80

88.60

88.25

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar dropped as Risk Appetite weakened following U.S production data. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0464 and a high of 1.0617. Today, Canadian CPI is expected with 0.2% versus 0% prior and Core CPI is expected with 0% versus 0.3% prior.

CAD/USD – Last: 1.0535

Resistance

1.0620

1.0680

1.0735

Support

1.0475

1.0450

1.0425

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

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Trade Binary Digital Options in Forex

A Binary Options, also known as a Digital Options Trading or a fixed return option, is an option in which payout is decided in the beginning of the contract. It pays a fixed amount of cash if the option expire in-the-money. The Binary Options came about as Forex traders and investors worldwide yearned for new, simplified ways to trade options across the financial markets. Binary options are like a cross between traditional buy-and-sell options and those of fixed returns. More and more Forex traders are finding it the most simple, ‘straight up’ and enjoyable way to get the best out of online trading.

This is actually a type of option in which the payoff is structured to be either a fixed amount of compensation if the option expires in the money or nothing at all if the option expires out of the money. These types of binary options are different from plain vanilla options and they are also referred to as “Fixed Return Options”, “all-or-nothing options” or “digital options. A Binary Option cannot be traded, once you buy one, you cannot change your mind and then sell it, the same way as in a European option.

There are many advantages trading binary options such as their Potential short-term returns, a Wide range of underlying assets, limited risk, a low commission structure- the only charge is the dealing spread and their ease of use- you either win or you lose. Another advantage is that in times of high volatility you can also buy them without worrying that you are paying a premium arising from inflated implied volatilities.

Binary Options allow the Forex trader to limit his risk while increasing his profit and that is why the foreign exchange market offers the opportunity to trade these unique derivatives. Forex digital options let you wager on whether the exchange rate will trade above or below the strike price, at the expiration date or time of the binary option.

Binary Commodities Options are bought and sold on commodities exchanges around the world and are also known as raw materials. Raw materials are significant to the production process of any given country. Commodities digital options let you wager on whether the price of any given commodity will trade above or below the strike price, at the expiration date of the option.

In Forex market, expected returns on a stock or other apparatus are already priced into the stock. However, a binary options market provides much other information. Just as the regular options market offers the market’s estimate of variance (volatility), the i.e. second moment, a binary options market reveals the market’s estimate of skew or the third moment. The Forex binary option trading is so simple that it requires only a sense of direction of the price from you. As the risk/reward ratio is predetermined here, many traders are turning to binary options to simplify their choices.

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GoLearnForex Analysis 17/11/2009

AUD/USD:

The Aussie continues to strengthen against the Greenback and is now retesting short term resistance at .9343.  The Aussie completed the top portion of a double top (as depicted on the Chart by the 2 white boxes) last week but is on the verge of a breakout.

INSERT CHART

The AUD has been holding support along the 40 SMA since mid March.  The 40 SMA is currently sitting at .9045. A break below support in addition to a close below the previous “higher low” (indicated by the red circle) would be a signal to open a Short AUD position.

For the moment we favor a Long AUD position.  You can see the formation of an ascending triangle (dotted white lines) with the 40 SMA acting as the slope of the triangle.  Anticipated continued weakness in the USD, the AUD’s close tie to commodities, the strength of  Australian economy, the carry trade, and the strong trend on the Chart certainly point towards continued AUD strength.  We are looking to take some profit at .95 and a further position reduction at .98

NZD/USD:

There are quite a few technicals to note on the Kiwi’s most recent price action.  Firstly, similar to nearly all the other G-7’s versus the Dollar the NZD has been trending long and hard.  However, back at the end of October it looked like the trend was about to break.  The Kiwi hit .76 and started to fall as indicated by the 2 orange parallel lines.  The appearance of those line when preceded by a strong trend is called a Pennant.

The 50 day MA has been holding support for the NZD since March.  The Pennant reached the 50 SMA and price bounced off of support.  Near term resistance is just north of .76.  We would maintain a Long NZD position.  Near term PNL could be taken at .76 while we target .78 for more significant profit taking.

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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Daily Review 17/11/2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar dropped versus the other after Fed Chairman Bernanke said interest rates would remain low to spur growth. Retail Sales came out at 1.4% better than 1% forecast but Core Retail Sales came out 0.2% worse than 0.4% forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones reached new 13 month highs with 1.38% and 1.45% gains respectively after Bernanke\’s speech. Crude gained by 3.3% closing at 78.87$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) jumped by 2.02% closing at 1140.4$ an ounce. Today, PPI is expected stronger with 0.6% versus -0.6% prior. TIC Long-Term Purchases are expected with 27.3B versus 28.6B prior. Industrial Production is expected with 0.4% versus 0.7% prior. FOMC Member Lacker will speak about his economic outlook at the State House Appropriation Committee in Richmond.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro gained versus the Dollar after Fed Chairman Bernanke commented the interest rates will remain low, spurring Risk Appetite. European CPI and Core CPI came out as expected with -0.1% and 1.2% respectively. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4880 and with a high of 1.5014. Today, European Trade Balance is expected with -0.9B versus 1B.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4970

Resistance

1.5020

1.5050

1.5115

Support

1.4880

1.4825

1.4740

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound reached new 3 month highs versus the Dollar after Bernanke\’s speech spurred risk appetite. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6657 and a high of 1.6876. Today, CPI is expected stronger with 1.4% versus 1.1% prior. RPI is expected with -0.9% versus -1.4% prior.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6825

Resistance

1.6875

1.6900

1.6955

Support

1.6790

1.6750

1.6670

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen gained versus the Dollar, Euro and the Pound as it Japan\’s economy showed the fastest growth pace in more than 2 years pulling Japan out of the recession. Tertiary Industry Activity came out weaker with -0.5% versus 0.1% expected and 0.3% prior. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.74 and a high of 89.72 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 133.18 and a high of 134.32. No major economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 89.10

Resistance

89.40

89.65

90.00

Support

88.75

88.60

88.25

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar gained versus the Dollar as stocks and commodities gained. Manufacturing Sales came out 1.4% better than 1% expected and -1.8% prior. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0425 and a high of 1.0540. No major economic data is expected today.

CAD/USD – Last: 1.048

Resistance

1.0515

1.0575

1.0610

Support

1.0417

1.0380

1.0315

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

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Benefits of the Bungee Options Trading

Options have been in existence in some or the other form a very long time. The reason for the same is the number of advantages that it offers to both the seller and the purchaser in the agreement. One of the most popular forms of options is the bungee Options trading, wherein the payoff is either nothing or all. Due it this feature, the bungee options are quite easy and simple to grasp and trade in comparison to the traditions forms of options.
These bungee options are cash settled like that of the European style options. It simply means that they can be implemented only on their expiry date, and if on its expiry date, the options are found to settle in the money, the seller or purchaser will get a pre-determined dollar amount. However, if these options do settle out of the money, then the seller or the purchaser of the options do not receive anything. Hence, the picture is clear and precise about the losses or the gains that would be made by the trader. They offer you a complete payout because of the single pip movement.
Here, in the bungee option trading, one needs to know the 2 outcome options. Here, the trader needs to predict the expected direction of the price movement. There is no need to know the direction of the price movements. There also arises a potential if the trader has an option about the principal asset and needs to place a trade, he can anytime go for the bungee options.
One needs to determine the position in bungee options and if you feel that the market rates will increase substantially, you should purchase; and sell if you think in the opposite way. If your prediction is found to be precise on the expiry date, your payoff would be the value of settlement for your agreement. Learn how the prices are set in bungee options trading. You should also understand that the rate of a bungee option agreement is quite similar to the possibilities of the event happening.
Bungee options are the simpler and easiest one to trade. And you only require a sense of direction of the movement of the rates of the principal asset. They have a controlled ratio of risk and reward that means the rewards and the risk values are preset at the time of signing the agreement. These options offer all the hedging as well as trading approaches that are likely and they also keep a track of trading functionalities as well as the complexity involved in it.
So what are you thinking of? Start trading in bungee option and make as much profits as possible and live a lifestyle of your dreams.

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GoLearnForex Analysis 16/11/2009

EUR Struggles to Break 1.50 Handle by GoLearnForex

EUR/USD:

The EUR continues to struggle to break the 1.50 handle.  Last week, the EUR on a daily chart, completed the formation of a double top just above resistance at 1.50 [shown in the red boxes in the chart below].  The 50 day SMA continues to hold support for the EUR at 1.4764.  We have not had an entire candle appear below the 50 SMA since April, however, we have bounced off this MA support nearly 15 times since then.

INSERT CHART

If an entire candle appears below the 50 SMA that would be a good indication to open a near term EUR short position.  On the flip side if we breach R1 we would resume a long EUR position.  You can also see the formation of an ascending triangle when using the 50 SMA as the slope and R1 as the top side.  Although trading becomes thin towards year end and a a result the market can appear a little more volatile we anticipate the 50 SMA will move in a more parallel form to R1.

GBP/USD:

Last week the Pound broke top side resistance at 1.6750, striking 1.6843 before retracing and barley closing above R1.  The Cable has been moving sideways since June bouncing off S&R with near predictability.  As a trader you want to decipher when the current short term trend near S&R is fading.  It not only allows one to time the market but it also can limit your losses.  By setting Stops just north or south of S&R after a reversal appears to be forming a trader will limit their losses should the actual breakout occur.

INSERT CHART

In order to time the reversal correctly we suggest using candle patterns in conjunction with at least an additional indicator such as an RSI or even a Stochastic oscillator which will highlight over bought/sold points. On the Graph above you can see the candle pattern referred to as a Hangman (red arrow on graph) which indicates a reversal.  On the lower part of the graph you can see the RSI headed down from its near breach of 70. Combine that with price at its current R1 level and you have a nice short entry point.  Remember you limit your risk by placing a stop loss just above your point of entry in case a breakout really occurs.

Dollar Ends Mixed Across G-10 Commodity Currencies by GoLearnForex

The Dollar ended the week mixed across the G-10 with commodity currencies advancing while the remaining G-10 currencies suffered minor losses.  Global Equity Markets finished the week in positive territory although Futures are pointing towards a slightly lower open.

Gold finished the week ahead at 1,118.70 while Oil lost a little over $3 a barrel to close at 76.35. The Bond Market capped a stellar week with the U.S Government auctioning an additional $81 billion in notes and bonds.

In Japan, GDP figures are set to print Sunday night.  Forecasters are looking for a slight increase in Annualized GDP figures.  On the docket for tomorrow we have Retails Sales set to publish in the U.S.  This may be a real market mover, as traders will use this as a barometer for the impact unemployment  will have on the economy.  Additionally, this will shape expectations for the popular Holiday season Forecasts.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 16, 2009

USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast   0.40%  Previous  0.50%

USD Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast  1.00%  Previous  -1.50%

USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

GBP MPC Member Sentance Speaks

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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Forex Binary Option Trading

The Forex binary options trading is one of the newest developments in the world of Forex trading. It is actually a unique, simple up and down trading system that can be understood and operated by even a small child. With this, the Forex binary option brokers have also arrived in the market and a low cost broker can easily help you get high yielding returns from your trades. The day traders with small investments can gain huge profits from the market with the help of Forex binary option brokers.

Forex trading is considered one of the fastest and largest financial markets in the world. Most of the transactions in the Forex market are made by the major international banks and other big financial institutions. The individual investors also comprise a small portion of the Forex market. The institutional traders mostly trade on behalf of hedge funds or for their own accounts. For this, the individual investors sometimes find it difficult or risky to invest in the Forex market. In order to relieve the individual investors from the dicey condition, another type of trading named binary options trading has emerged in the recent years.

The main role of a Forex binary option broker is to offer the small traders an opportunity to buy put and sell call positions different major currency pairs. An individual investor like you can easily invest on the major cross rates like Yen/Dollar, Dollar/Euro, Dollar/Pound, Euro/Yen or Dollar/Swiss Franc. You can easily get a fixed high yield return with a payout either hourly or at the end of the day from this market.

Now, let’s see what kind of investors really need the Forex binary options trading. Being one of the most recent inventions in Forex market, most Forex traders have not understood the real good effect of binary option trading yet. Binary options trading actually can yield “binary” results for you, either yes or no. This means the option remains either above or below the price of a financial security at the date and time of expiration. You will either get paid or do not for the option.

To make it simpler, if you have a binary call option and the expiration price is more than your strike price, you will make a set amount of profit. The amount can be $100 or $1000 depending on the market and on your initial investment. However, you will not get anything if the price is less. In case or a binary put option, the scenario is just the opposite. The Forex binary option trading is so simple that it requires only a sense of direction of the price from you. As the risk/reward ratio is predetermined here, many traders are turning to binary options to simplify their choices.

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Daily Review 16/11/2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar weakened versus most majors after gains in stocks and the Trade Balance that showed a deficit of -36.5B wider than -31.8B expected. Michigan\’s Consumer Sentiment came out worse than expected dragging the Euro and Pound lower, but stock market gains pumped risk appetite back up. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 0.88% and 0.72% respectively as better earnings and company mergers led to gains. Crude declined by -0.77% closing at 76.35$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) resumed gaining with 0.91% rise closing at 1116.1$ an ounce. Today, Retail Sales are expected better with 1% versus -1.5% prior and Core Retail Sales are expected slightly worse with 0.4% versus 0.5% prior. Fed Chairman Bernanke and FOMC Member Kohn will speak today.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro gained versus the Dollar on Friday after gains in stock markets led risk appetite higher causing investors to ignore weak economic data. German Prelim GDP came out weaker with 0.7% versus 0.8% expected and European Flash GDP came out 0.4% versus 0.6% expected. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4824 and with a high of 1.4937. Today, European CPI and Core CPI are expected unchanged with -0.1% and 1.2% respectively.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4950

Resistance

1.4955

1.4985

1.5015

Support

1.4825

1.4800

1.4710

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound climbed versus the Dollar on Friday as risk appetite remained strong even after weaker Sentiment was released in the U.S. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6574 and a high of 1.6706. Today, MPC\’s Members Tucker and Sentence will speak.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6700

Resistance

1.6750

1.6800

1.6845

Support

1.6625

1.6585

1.6550

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen gained versus most majors as a larger U.S trade deficit and weaker sentiment caused investors to favor the Yen as a safe haven. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 89.46 and a high of 90.41 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.84 and a high of 134.45. Today, Tertiary Industry Activity is expected with 0.1% versus 0.3% prior.

USD/JPY-Last: 89.60

Resistance

90.00

90.20

90.40

Support

89.45

89.30

89.00

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar gained versus the Dollar after Canadian Trade Balance came out better with -0.9B versus -1.6B expected. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0472 and a high of 1.0566. Today, Manufacturing Sales are expected stronger with 0.5% change versus -2.1% prior.

CAD/USD – Last: 1.0500

Resistance

1.0575

1.0610

1.0675

Support

1.0475

1.0435

1.0417

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

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Working of the Bungee Trading options

Bungee trading options are the fastest growing investment choices between the day traders. Its instant turnover and higher amount of profits has generated a stir amongst the various trading desks throughout the world.
Working of the bungee trading option
The simplest way to understand the working of a bungee trading option is similar to that of a light switch. A light switch contains an on and off position. When the switch is on, light is present in the room. And when it is off, the room remains dark. Trading in the bungee options functions in the similar way, whenever the market conditions fall down and you hold a call option, the position is regarded as out of the money and it will pay you nothing or very little. In contrast, when the market condition is rising and you have a call option, the trader is in the money.
Generally people make success in these bungee trading options and prefer to use it due to its higher returns on the investments. Generally, an all or nothing option would pay you about 60-70% returns in the money position and sometimes, it might also pay about 15% returns on your principal investment and hence is also referred as out of the money trade. Let us clarify this with an example. A two hundred dollars trade in a general agreement will pay you about three hundred and fifty dollars, if you yield about seventy five percent of your investment. Here, unsuccessful trades may pay you only about thirty dollars.
You might have observed that in the above example, the trade was executed in a fixed dollar amount that is two hundred dollars. There are some platforms that are being designed to implement such trades in fixed amounts similar to that of mutual fund orders. This is another wonderful feature of this kind of investment.
Trading in the bungee options is associated with low cost, high returns and fast paced method to participate in the stock market. You can generate easy as well as fast money online through the bungee trading options. If you really intend to make money fast, then you will require 3 things: a forex trading software program, forex trading account and the few hundred dollars. Once you attain these three things securely with you, then you need to settle your account get the software to communicate with your account and deposit the money in your forex account.
Bungee trading option is the fastest way of generating money as compared to that of the hourly turnover in the option market. No matter the returns are low here as compared to the forex market, but your money can indeed turnover at a faster pace here than the forex market.

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