Archive for November, 2009
GoLearnForex Analysis 18/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 18th, 2009
USD/JPY:
The Yen has lost ground to every other currency in the G-10 except the Dollar, since March of 2009. The BOJ has always favored a weak currency as it supports their large export business which accounts for over 20% of their GDP.
INSERT CHART a
The Chart above is a daily JPY chart looking back through this past March. Although the Yen trended down it was extremely volatile through August. After mid August it continued a less volatile trend towards a handle of 88.00 before retracing to 92.00. Since mid October it has been struggling to breach near term resistance at 88.00.
On the daily JPY chart below you can see we added Bollinger Bands (BB). BB are very good during range trading and very dangerous during trending markets. BB are best understood as a mean or avg as indicated by the yellow dotted line. The red lines represent a standard deviation from the mean. In short you expect price to be somewhere between the 2 red lines. When price nears one of the bands you expect it to return toward the mean, what traders call a reversal.
INSERT CHART b
Notice that from March through August the same period of time shown on Chart A above that price moves precisely the way we expect with BB. The green swing line shows price moving from one band to the next. However, towards the end of August price does not move towards the mean as the JPY has started to trend. This is why BB are difficult to use during trending markets as we do not expect price to move back towards the mean.
There are a number of tools available to you via your charting platforms that can help you isolate when to expect the BB reversal versus a false reversal signal. On the lower half of Chart b the Relative Strength Index (RSI) helps traders identify when a trend is strong and may continue. The red vertical line that runs through the false reversal signal also shows that the RSI indicates we are in the footholds of a strong trend. Typically an RSI descending after breaching 70 (over bought) or ascending after breaching 30 (oversold) indicate a weakening trend.
Currently the JPY is sitting on the lower band of the BB and the RSI reads low in terms of trend strength. Additionally, the Yen is bumping up against R1 and R2 is fairly close as well. For now it appears that the trend has slowed.
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review 18/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 18th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar gained versus most majors as Industrial Production came out weaker, lowering risk appetite. Industrial Production came out 0.1% versus 0.4% expected. PPI came out weaker with 0.3% versus 0.6% forecast. TIC Long-Term Purchases came out better with 40.7B versus 27.3B expected. NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.27% and 0.29%. Crude gained by 0.68% closing at 79.44$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) remained almost unchanged with 0.16% change closing at 1140.5$ an ounce. Today, Building Permits are expected higher with 0.59M versus 0.57M prior and Core CPI is expected with 0.1% versus 0.2% prior. Housing Starts are expected higher with 0.61M versus 0.59M and Crude Inventories are expected with 1.2M versus 1.8M prior.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro weakened versus the Dollar and the Pound as risk appetite weakened and ECB\’s president Trichet said a strong Dollar is important for the world economy. European Trade Balance came out better than expected with 6.8B versus -0.9B expected. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4806 and with a high of 1.4998. Today, European Current Account is expected with 0.6B versus -1.3B prior. ECB President Trichet will speak in Frankfurt.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4870
|
Resistance |
1.4900 |
1.4925 |
1.4955 |
|
Support |
1.4810 |
1.4740 |
1.4703 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound remained almost unchanged versus the Dollar as CPI figures came out better than expected but Industrial Production in the U.S lowered investors Risk Appetite. CPI came out 1.5% versus 1.4% expected and RPI came out -0.8% versus -0.9% expected. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6755 and a high of 1.6872. Today, MPC Meeting Minutes will be released. CBI Industrial Order Expectations are expected with -47 versus -51 prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6800
|
Resistance |
1.6850 |
1.6900 |
1.6955 |
|
Support |
1.6750 |
1.6670 |
1.6625 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen gained versus the Euro and weakened versus the Dollar as risk appetite lowered after Industrial Production in the U.S came out weaker than expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.73 and a high of 89.53 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.44 and a high of 133.58. Today, All Industries Activity is expected with -0.1% versus 0.9% prior.
USD/JPY-Last: 89.17
|
Resistance |
89.65 |
90.00 |
90.18 |
|
Support |
88.80 |
88.60 |
88.25 |
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar dropped as Risk Appetite weakened following U.S production data. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0464 and a high of 1.0617. Today, Canadian CPI is expected with 0.2% versus 0% prior and Core CPI is expected with 0% versus 0.3% prior.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0535
|
Resistance |
1.0620 |
1.0680 |
1.0735 |
|
Support |
1.0475 |
1.0450 |
1.0425 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
GoLearnForex Analysis 17/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 17th, 2009
AUD/USD:
The Aussie continues to strengthen against the Greenback and is now retesting short term resistance at .9343. The Aussie completed the top portion of a double top (as depicted on the Chart by the 2 white boxes) last week but is on the verge of a breakout.
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The AUD has been holding support along the 40 SMA since mid March. The 40 SMA is currently sitting at .9045. A break below support in addition to a close below the previous higher low (indicated by the red circle) would be a signal to open a Short AUD position.
For the moment we favor a Long AUD position. You can see the formation of an ascending triangle (dotted white lines) with the 40 SMA acting as the slope of the triangle. Anticipated continued weakness in the USD, the AUD’s close tie to commodities, the strength of Australian economy, the carry trade, and the strong trend on the Chart certainly point towards continued AUD strength. We are looking to take some profit at .95 and a further position reduction at .98
NZD/USD:
There are quite a few technicals to note on the Kiwi’s most recent price action. Firstly, similar to nearly all the other G-7’s versus the Dollar the NZD has been trending long and hard. However, back at the end of October it looked like the trend was about to break. The Kiwi hit .76 and started to fall as indicated by the 2 orange parallel lines. The appearance of those line when preceded by a strong trend is called a Pennant.
The 50 day MA has been holding support for the NZD since March. The Pennant reached the 50 SMA and price bounced off of support. Near term resistance is just north of .76. We would maintain a Long NZD position. Near term PNL could be taken at .76 while we target .78 for more significant profit taking.
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review 17/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 17th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar dropped versus the other after Fed Chairman Bernanke said interest rates would remain low to spur growth. Retail Sales came out at 1.4% better than 1% forecast but Core Retail Sales came out 0.2% worse than 0.4% forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones reached new 13 month highs with 1.38% and 1.45% gains respectively after Bernanke\’s speech. Crude gained by 3.3% closing at 78.87$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) jumped by 2.02% closing at 1140.4$ an ounce. Today, PPI is expected stronger with 0.6% versus -0.6% prior. TIC Long-Term Purchases are expected with 27.3B versus 28.6B prior. Industrial Production is expected with 0.4% versus 0.7% prior. FOMC Member Lacker will speak about his economic outlook at the State House Appropriation Committee in Richmond.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro gained versus the Dollar after Fed Chairman Bernanke commented the interest rates will remain low, spurring Risk Appetite. European CPI and Core CPI came out as expected with -0.1% and 1.2% respectively. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4880 and with a high of 1.5014. Today, European Trade Balance is expected with -0.9B versus 1B.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4970
|
Resistance |
1.5020 |
1.5050 |
1.5115 |
|
Support |
1.4880 |
1.4825 |
1.4740 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound reached new 3 month highs versus the Dollar after Bernanke\’s speech spurred risk appetite. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6657 and a high of 1.6876. Today, CPI is expected stronger with 1.4% versus 1.1% prior. RPI is expected with -0.9% versus -1.4% prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6825
|
Resistance |
1.6875 |
1.6900 |
1.6955 |
|
Support |
1.6790 |
1.6750 |
1.6670 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen gained versus the Dollar, Euro and the Pound as it Japan\’s economy showed the fastest growth pace in more than 2 years pulling Japan out of the recession. Tertiary Industry Activity came out weaker with -0.5% versus 0.1% expected and 0.3% prior. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.74 and a high of 89.72 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 133.18 and a high of 134.32. No major economic data is expected today.
USD/JPY-Last: 89.10
|
Resistance |
89.40 |
89.65 |
90.00 |
|
Support |
88.75 |
88.60 |
88.25 |
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar gained versus the Dollar as stocks and commodities gained. Manufacturing Sales came out 1.4% better than 1% expected and -1.8% prior. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0425 and a high of 1.0540. No major economic data is expected today.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.048
|
Resistance |
1.0515 |
1.0575 |
1.0610 |
|
Support |
1.0417 |
1.0380 |
1.0315 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
GoLearnForex Analysis 16/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 16th, 2009
EUR Struggles to Break 1.50 Handle by GoLearnForex
EUR/USD:
The EUR continues to struggle to break the 1.50 handle. Last week, the EUR on a daily chart, completed the formation of a double top just above resistance at 1.50 [shown in the red boxes in the chart below]. The 50 day SMA continues to hold support for the EUR at 1.4764. We have not had an entire candle appear below the 50 SMA since April, however, we have bounced off this MA support nearly 15 times since then.
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If an entire candle appears below the 50 SMA that would be a good indication to open a near term EUR short position. On the flip side if we breach R1 we would resume a long EUR position. You can also see the formation of an ascending triangle when using the 50 SMA as the slope and R1 as the top side. Although trading becomes thin towards year end and a a result the market can appear a little more volatile we anticipate the 50 SMA will move in a more parallel form to R1.
GBP/USD:
Last week the Pound broke top side resistance at 1.6750, striking 1.6843 before retracing and barley closing above R1. The Cable has been moving sideways since June bouncing off S&R with near predictability. As a trader you want to decipher when the current short term trend near S&R is fading. It not only allows one to time the market but it also can limit your losses. By setting Stops just north or south of S&R after a reversal appears to be forming a trader will limit their losses should the actual breakout occur.
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In order to time the reversal correctly we suggest using candle patterns in conjunction with at least an additional indicator such as an RSI or even a Stochastic oscillator which will highlight over bought/sold points. On the Graph above you can see the candle pattern referred to as a Hangman (red arrow on graph) which indicates a reversal. On the lower part of the graph you can see the RSI headed down from its near breach of 70. Combine that with price at its current R1 level and you have a nice short entry point. Remember you limit your risk by placing a stop loss just above your point of entry in case a breakout really occurs.
Dollar Ends Mixed Across G-10 Commodity Currencies by GoLearnForex
The Dollar ended the week mixed across the G-10 with commodity currencies advancing while the remaining G-10 currencies suffered minor losses. Global Equity Markets finished the week in positive territory although Futures are pointing towards a slightly lower open.
Gold finished the week ahead at 1,118.70 while Oil lost a little over $3 a barrel to close at 76.35. The Bond Market capped a stellar week with the U.S Government auctioning an additional $81 billion in notes and bonds.
In Japan, GDP figures are set to print Sunday night. Forecasters are looking for a slight increase in Annualized GDP figures. On the docket for tomorrow we have Retails Sales set to publish in the U.S. This may be a real market mover, as traders will use this as a barometer for the impact unemployment will have on the economy. Additionally, this will shape expectations for the popular Holiday season Forecasts.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 16, 2009
USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast 0.40% Previous 0.50%
USD Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast 1.00% Previous -1.50%
USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
GBP MPC Member Sentance Speaks
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review 16/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 16th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar weakened versus most majors after gains in stocks and the Trade Balance that showed a deficit of -36.5B wider than -31.8B expected. Michigan\’s Consumer Sentiment came out worse than expected dragging the Euro and Pound lower, but stock market gains pumped risk appetite back up. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 0.88% and 0.72% respectively as better earnings and company mergers led to gains. Crude declined by -0.77% closing at 76.35$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) resumed gaining with 0.91% rise closing at 1116.1$ an ounce. Today, Retail Sales are expected better with 1% versus -1.5% prior and Core Retail Sales are expected slightly worse with 0.4% versus 0.5% prior. Fed Chairman Bernanke and FOMC Member Kohn will speak today.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro gained versus the Dollar on Friday after gains in stock markets led risk appetite higher causing investors to ignore weak economic data. German Prelim GDP came out weaker with 0.7% versus 0.8% expected and European Flash GDP came out 0.4% versus 0.6% expected. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4824 and with a high of 1.4937. Today, European CPI and Core CPI are expected unchanged with -0.1% and 1.2% respectively.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4950
|
Resistance |
1.4955 |
1.4985 |
1.5015 |
|
Support |
1.4825 |
1.4800 |
1.4710 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound climbed versus the Dollar on Friday as risk appetite remained strong even after weaker Sentiment was released in the U.S. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6574 and a high of 1.6706. Today, MPC\’s Members Tucker and Sentence will speak.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6700
|
Resistance |
1.6750 |
1.6800 |
1.6845 |
|
Support |
1.6625 |
1.6585 |
1.6550 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen gained versus most majors as a larger U.S trade deficit and weaker sentiment caused investors to favor the Yen as a safe haven. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 89.46 and a high of 90.41 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.84 and a high of 134.45. Today, Tertiary Industry Activity is expected with 0.1% versus 0.3% prior.
USD/JPY-Last: 89.60
|
Resistance |
90.00 |
90.20 |
90.40 |
|
Support |
89.45 |
89.30 |
89.00 |
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar gained versus the Dollar after Canadian Trade Balance came out better with -0.9B versus -1.6B expected. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0472 and a high of 1.0566. Today, Manufacturing Sales are expected stronger with 0.5% change versus -2.1% prior.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0500
|
Resistance |
1.0575 |
1.0610 |
1.0675 |
|
Support |
1.0475 |
1.0435 |
1.0417 |





