Archive for November, 2009
GoLearn Forex Analysis 30/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 30th, 2009
Moving Averages Are Not So Average by GoLearn Forex
Moving Averages – they are not so average
EUR/USD and USD/CHF
On Thursday of last week we saw the EUR and CHF finally break near term resistance. The EUR cleanly sliced through 1.50 and took out near term resistance around the 1.5055 handle. The CHF finally broke parity with the Dollar after struggling for weeks.
The very next day the Dollar was saved by the news coming out of Dubai. Risk aversion was on as traders unwound short Dollar positions to cover themselves. We discuss Moving Averages a fair amount especially since the 50 SMA has acted as support for such an extended period of time and for a number of currencies such as the EUR and CHF.
The CHF touched .9918 on Wednesday only to give back its gains on Thursday. In the Chart below notice the CHF low on Friday as fear penetrated the market place. As a sense of calm returned the CHF was again bouncing off the 50 SMA, as support held again.
INSERT CHART CHF
The EUR easily breached resistance last Wednesday when the DXY hit new lows for the year. As you can see on the Chart below it closed just below the Fibonacci Retrace level of 76.4%. The very next day the EUR gave back all its gains as the market was reeling from the news of the day.
As details emerged and fear stirred recent wounds in the market the EUR plummeted again. Notice the level the EUR hit before retracing its losses on Friday. The 50 SMA again held support for the EUR.
INSERT CHART EUR
The moral here: Do not discount these as just “average” lines. Even if you question the indicative validity of a moving average the very fact that institutional traders monitor these levels makes them exceptionally important if for no other reason.
Mixed Day for Global Equity Markets After Dubai’s Announcement by GoLearn Forex
It was a mixed day for the Global Equity Markets on Friday following Dubai’s debt default announcement the day before. The markets in Asia continued to sell off while in Europe they apparently felt the exposure was sufficiently contained. In the U.S on Friday after returning from Holiday the day prior, it was the DJIA’s turn to take some risk off the table as it closed lower by 154.48 points to 10,309.92 Opening session futures are pointing positive in premarket hours.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Central Bank issued a statement indicating they would offer financing to the local and foreign banks at 50bp over the 3month local benchmark rate. This facility offered by the U.A.E C.B will ensure liquidity and restore some confidence in the market.
On the economic data docket for Monday we have a number items set to print out of the U.K. However, forex traders will be analyzing Black Friday sales numbers as well as the ensuing weekend figures. Currently, net sales figures look to be on par with last year. Additionally for Monday, Euro-zone CPI will hit the wire as will Canadian GDP.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 30, 2009
EUR CPI (YoY) Forecast 0.40% Previous -0.10%
CAD GDP (MoM) Forecast 0.40% Previous -0.10%
USD Chicago PMI Forecast 53.00 Previous 54.20
AUD Interest Rate Decision Forecast 3.75% Previous 3.50%
Daily Review 30/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 30th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar lowered versus most majors on Friday as Dubai debt concerns were reduced due to UAE’s pledge to back foreign and domestic banks in Dubai. NASDAQ and Dow Jones dropped by -1.73% and -1.48% after being closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving. Crude fell by -2.45% closing at 76.05$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) fell for the first time in 9 days with -1.08% change closing at 1174.2$ an ounce. Today, Chicago PMI is expected weaker with 53.1 versus 54.2 prior.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro gained slightly versus the Dollar on Friday’s session as liquidity was lower and stocks declined as a result of Dubai’s financial crisis. The Euro paired its losses as rumors of the UAE backing Dubai’s bank leaked to the market. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4828 and with a high of 1.50. Today, CPI Flash Estimate is expected with 0.5% versus -0.1% prior.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.5025
|
Resistance |
1.5055 |
1.5100 |
|
|
Support |
1.4950 |
1.4870 |
1.4825 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound gained versus the Dollar after UAE’s pledge to back Dubai raised risk appetite again lifting the Pound from its monthly lows. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6271 and a high of 1.6510. Today, Net Lending to Individuals is expected with 0.8B versus 0.6B prior, stronger result will lead to less need to expend Britain’s QE program. Mortgage Approvals are expected stronger with 59K versus 56K prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6540
|
Resistance |
1.6590 |
1.6650 |
|
|
Support |
1.6450 |
1.6375 |
1.6325 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen weakened versus the Dollar as uncertainty about the Dubai crisis lowered following UAE’s announcement. Investors shifted back from the safety of the Yen to higher yielding currencies. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 85.08 and a high of 87.01 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 127.38 and a high of 130.14. No economic data expected today.
USD/JPY-Last: 86.80
|
Resistance |
87.05 |
87.50 |
88.00 |
|
Support |
86.30 |
85.75 |
85.25 |
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar remained unchanged versus the Dollar as commodities prices dropped but Dubai’s financial crisis uncertainty lowered. Current Account came out weaker than expected with -13.1B versus -12.9B forecast and -11.9B prior. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0585 and a high of 1.0748. Today, GDP is expected stronger with 0.4% versus -0.1% prior. RMPI is expected stronger with 3.1% versus -1.1% prior.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0585
|
Resistance |
1.0650 |
1.0700 |
1.0750 |
|
Support |
1.0570 |
1.0540 |
1.0505 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
Daily Review 27/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 27th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar climbed against all majors after Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt by 6 month caused Europe Stocks to drop heavily and spurred investors to seek the safety of assets perceived as lower risk. Stocks market in U.S were close due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Crude oil fell by 3% closing at 76.2$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) closed almost unchanged at 1191.85 $ an ounce but dropped during Asia session falling back to 1170$ levels. No economic data expected today.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro fell against the Dollar following the collapse of stock markets in Europe as a result of Dubai’s debt rescheduling. EUR/USD pair traded with a low of 1.4959 and with a high of 1.5141. Loans to Euro zone households and firms fell in October for the second month in a row, coming at 0.3% vs. 0.7% forecast. No important data expected today.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4945
|
Resistance |
1.5020 |
1.5100 |
1.5144 |
|
Support |
1.4913 |
1.4830 |
1.4800 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound fell versus the Dollar as stocks declined and a proposal by Dubai to delay debt payments prompted investors to seek what they perceive to be safer securities. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6466 and with a high of 1.6725. CBI Realized Sales came out at 13 vs. 12 forecast.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6406
|
Resistance |
1.6530 |
1.6648 |
1.6720 |
|
Support |
1.6376 |
|
|
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen rallied to a 14-year high against the Dollar, climbing past the 85.00 level, on speculation Japanese monetary authorities will tolerate further appreciation of the currency. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 84.81 and with a high of 87.48. Tokyo Core CPI came out better than expected at -1.9% vs. -2% forecast.
USD/JPY-Last: 86.37
|
Resistance |
87.00 |
87.70 |
88.62 |
|
Support |
85.80 |
85.00 |
|
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart by the most in almost four weeks as Dubai’s plan to reschedule its debt spurred a sell-off in crude oil, gold and equities. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0450 and with a high of 1.0620.Today, Current Account is expected at -12.9B vs. -11.2B prior.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0626
|
Resistance |
1.0641 |
1.0719 |
|
|
Support |
1.0587 |
1.0530 |
1.0450 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
GoLearn Forex Analysis 26/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 26th, 2009
Greenback Makes Headlines by GoLearn Forex
The U.S Dollar made headlines yesterday unfortunately for the Greenback it was not positive. The DXY, an index weighted basket of currencies against that Dollar, hit a low for the year touching just below 74.20 before a mild retreat. EUR and CHF both took out near term resistance with the EUR touching an intra-day high of 1.5145 and the CHF dropped below Dollar parity to .9920.
Global Equity Markets were mostly up as the DJIA closed its session ahead 30.69 points to 10,464.40 before the U.S Holiday. Gold struck 1,192 and Oil briefly crosses $78 a barrel before leveling off, as Crude Oil inventories in the U.S were reported to be on the rise.
There are a number of economic data releases due out in Japan and the Euro-zone. The ones to watch will be the CPI from the Euro-zone and the Jobless Rate in Japan. Today is a U.S Holiday, so expect lighter than normal volumes across all markets.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 26, 2009
GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey Forecast 11.00 Previous 8.00
EUR German CPI (MoM)
Forecast 0.00% Previous 0.10%
JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) Forecast -2.00% Previous -2.20%
NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ) Previous 2.30%
GoLearn Forex Year End Review
Year End:
Thanksgiving in the U.S marks the beginning of the Holiday Season. The day after Thanksgiving known as Black Friday marks the commencement of the Holiday shopping season. Many analysts view this particular season as one of the most important shopping seasons in recent history. The idea is simple. If the consumer stays home and sales are down significantly it may be the final nail in the coffin for many retailers who are still struggling from sluggish sales and hard to find credit.
The following are some important economic data releases to watch heading into the final month of 2009. Economic data releases related to the Consumer, Housing, and the Federal Reserve will capture forex trader’s attention the most. Let’s take a brief moment and highlight the key releases under those 3 sectors.
Consumer – “Retail Sales” will enable traders to gauge consumer spending and the impact on the retail market and its trickle-down effect. The “Unemployment Rate” will be a good indicator of whether the consumer will derail, assist, or possibly be neutral in a pending recovery.
Housing – “Home Sales” both new and existing will continue to be very important as this is the sector that nearly caused the financial collapse. As many as 1 in 4 home owners are underwater so it is vital that home sales and home prices stabilize.
Federal Reserve – comments, minutes, and meetings dictate financial policy. Any speculation of a possible rate increase will strengthen the Greenback. The reason behind why the FED may want or need to raise rates will be secondary to the actual intimation of a hike.
An additional variable to consider heading into year-end will be liquidity. There are many ingredients that feed into this equation. Many funds are up huge this year and want to lock in profits for their year-end closing of the books. This is very important given last year’s massive losses. Therefore you can expect typical end of year slack in volume. Another factor that affects liquidity will be the actual hoarding of cash by corporations and banks in order to shore up balances sheets before they report their financials. To this effect, we have already seen the 3 month T-Bill turn a negative yield as these institutions sock cash away.
Barring some catastrophic event most analysts believe that the Dollar will continue to depreciate. Here are some suggestions for trading the market. Firstly, let’s look at today (Nov. 25th) we had positive prints for Jobless Claims and New Home Sales. Positive means that things are less negative. The economy is losing fewer jobs but still not adding any new ones either. The Dollar tanked on the news (see chart below) as its G-10 rivals advanced smartly.
INSERT CHART
Until the news turns truly positive (and not just less negative) it allows traders to take risks. Traders view the economy as stabilizing but not to the extent that the FED can raise rates. When data releases are negative the impact is measured in “derailments”. Derailments are defined as the potential to slow or even reverse a global recovery. In summary, go short on the Dollar on news which is positive (meaning less negative than the prior month). Go long the Dollar against the currencies that appreciated the most against it when truly negative data prints.
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review 26/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 26th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar fell across the board after the Federal Reserve said the global recession is reaching its end and signaled it will tolerate a weaker Dollar, which encouraged investors to buy riskier assets. Unemployment Claims came out batter than the forecast at 466K vs.500K forecast and New Homes Sales climbed more than forecast at 430K vs. 408K forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose by 0.32% and 0.29% respectively, crude oil jumped by 2.6% closed nearly to 78$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) rose by 1.8% reached to a new record high during the day (above 1190$ ) but finally closing at 1187$ an ounce . No economic data expected today.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro surged to a 15 month high against the Dollar after the Federal Reserve refrained from voicing concern over the U.S. currency’s decline. GFK German Consumer Climate came out at 3.7 vs. 4.2 forecast. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4955 and with a high of 1.5144. Today, German Prelim CPI is expected at 0.0% vs. 0.1% prior and M3 Money Supply is expected at 0.7% vs. 1.8% prior.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.5102
|
Resistance |
1.5144 |
|
|
|
Support |
1.5095 |
1.5040 |
1.5000 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound rose versus the Dollar after the GDP report data was released and showed the UK economy shrank less than previously estimated in the third quarter, coming out at -0.3%, bringing the longest recession on record closer to an end. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6574 and with a high of 1.6744. Today, CBI Realized Sales is expected at 12 vs. 8 prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6654
|
Resistance |
1.6724 |
1.6820 |
|
|
Support |
1.6643 |
1.6503 |
1.6472 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen continued to strengthen versus the Dollar after breaking below 88 for the first time in 10 months as the Federal Reserve’s signal that it will tolerate a weaker Dollar encouraged investors to buy assets outside America. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 87.21 and with a high of 88.63, trade balance came out better than expected at 0.42T vs. 0.31T forecast. No economic data expected today.
USD/JPY-Last: 86.51
|
Resistance |
87.48 |
88.37 |
89.13 |
|
Support |
86.29 |
|
|
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar strengthened to the highest level in a week versus the Dollar after Russia’s central bank said it will add the currency to its reserves and as copper rose and gold headed for the longest string of gains in almost three decades. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0449 and with a high of 1.0583. No economic data expected today.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0500
|
Resistance |
1.0526 |
1.0642 |
1.0726 |
|
Support |
1.0450 |
|
|
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
GoLearn Forex Analysis 25/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 25th, 2009
The ’09 Gold Rush Continues by GoLearn Forex
Global Equities Market futures are pointing slightly higher for Wednesday’s open. The DJIA finished lower after a mixed day on Wall Street, losing 17.24 points to close at 10,433.71. The Fed conceded in minutes released yesterday that a weak dollar may be fueling unwarranted speculation in the markets and that the weak dollar needs to be monitored for fear of creating inflationary conditions.
The DXY was mixed as it responded to the equity market’s whiplash. The Gold rush of 2009 continues at it made new intra-day highs bouncing off 1,180.20 before closing at 1,169.40. Oil gave up some ground to close at $76.45 a barrel.
We are expecting lighter than normal volumes today ahead of the U.S Holiday on Thursday although there will be a lot of economic data published tomorrow. Headline data prints will focus on U.K GDP and in the U.S; Crude Oil Inventories, Initial and Continuing Jobless claims, and New Home Sales.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 25, 2009
GBP GDP (QoQ) Forecast -0.30% Previous -0.40%
USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Forecast 0.80% Previous 0.90%
USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 500.00K Previous 505.00K
USD New Home Sales Forecast 408.00K Previous 402.00K
EUR, GBP and AUD Support and Resistance by GoLearn Forex
Key Levels of Support & Resistance
EUR, GBP, & AUD
As the market continues its sideways movement it is a good idea to keep cognizant of important key levels of S&R as well as the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. When markets move sideways for an extended period of time ensuing price action on a breach of major S&R or an MA can be quick, therefore you want to be in a position to execute.
INSERT AUD CHART
AUD key levels of Resistance are as follows; .9300 , .9500, and .9650.
AUD key Support levels are the 50 SMA which is currently at .9038. The next support level is at .8890 which was the prior low and also represents the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace level going back to July of 2008.
______________________________________
The EUR is in between 2 key levels of Resistance with the lower level handle at 1.4870 and the near term Resistance at 1.5055. If we break near term Resistance at 55 then we expect the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace level from July 2008, at a handle of 1.5165 to stand as the next key Resistance level. Looking north just a bit further 1.5345 would represent R4
INSERT EUR CHART
A candle appearing below the Support level of the 50 SMA would signal a Short EUR entry. A very strong Short EUR signal would be a close below 61.8% Fibonacci Retrace level from July 2008, which is perfectly in sync with the prior low at 1.4621
GBP is sitting between 2 near term Resistance levels. We have R1 at 1.65, R2 at 1.66 and R3 at 1.70. the 100 day MA is sitting at 1.6404 and in line with the important Fibonacci Retrace level of 38.2% from November of 2007.
INSERT CHART GBP
When a 100 SMA is above a 50 SMA, as it is with the Cable, it is usually indicative of a falling price environment. A close below the 50 SMA,currently at 1.6340 would generate a near term Short Pound entry. The next level of Support at S2 is 1.6130. A breach of S2 would more than likely send us south of 1.60.
The longer price spends consolidating between 2 points the more price action we expect to see when a breakout finally occurs. It is analogous to a spring placed in a box. The longer the spring and the more coils one forces into a confined space the more resistance the spring builds. Conversely, a short spring in the same space has less potential energy. Break open the box and the larger spring is going to move quicker and further than the smaller spring. Therefore the longer we consolidate price into a range the more price action we expect to see when it finally breaks key levels of Support and Resistance.
GoLearn Forex.net Optimizes Social Networking to Reach Out to Forex Traders
By utilizing such tremendously popular social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook, GoLearnForex is reaching forex traders with important educational tools.
Newly re-launched forex educational portal, GoLearnForex.net is reaching out to traders through social networking. Sites such as Twitter and Facebook are valuable social networking sites for millions of users worldwide. Members of these popular social sites connect with friends, do business and participate in other social causes and groups via these platforms.
There is a growing presence of forex trading communities on these networking portals and GoLearnForex is reaching out to share their mission of educating those who participate in the foreign exchange market. Highly trained financial analysts provide unique analysis daily that GoLearnForex seeks to share with traders of all backgrounds.
“Without the proper education forex can become a negative investing experience for traders,” shared Michael Law, editor of GoLearnForex.net. “We want to empower those seeking a profit in forex to really reap the full benefit of the largest market in the world.”
Communities of “friends” and “followers” that utilize GoLearnForex range from all types of traders and are located all over the globe. You can find GoLearnForex on Twitter and Facebook under the username “GoLearnForex.”
About us:
GoLearnForex.net was created in 2006 by a team of Forex professionals to offer traders a one-stop shop for all their Forex needs. The portal offers the latest up-to-the minute technical and fundamental analysis from some of the leading providers around, as well as relevant forex related news, and directories of brokers, fund managers , software and education providers.
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review 25/11/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on November 25th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar lost an important part of previous gains after the minutes of the FOMC showed that the FED sees a slow recovery and expects the unemployment rate to remain at high levels. Earlier, The GDP came out 2.8% worse than expected 2.9%. The U.S. markets ended with minor losses. Dow Jones ended the session with a loss of -0.16%, NASDAQ fell by -0.31% and the S&P 500 decreased by -0.05%. Gold (XAU) did not reach new highs closing at 1168$ an ounce. Crude Oil tumbled and closed under 76$ a barrel. Today, The Core Durable Goods Orders expected 0.8% vs. 0.9% previously. The Initial Jobless Claims expected 500K vs. 505K previously. The New Home Sales expected 408K vs. 402K previously.
EURO (EUR)
The Dollar lost daily gains against the Euro but the Euro failed one more time to break above 1.5. The pair is still moving sideways between 1.5050 and 1.48. The German GDP came out as expected unchanged at 0.7%. The German IFO Business Climate Index came out 93.9 better than expected 92.5. The Industrial New Orders came out 1.5% also better than expected 0.6%. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4888 and with a high of 1.4988. Today, The Gfk German Consumer Climate expected 4.3 vs. 4 previously.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4968
|
Resistance |
1.5000 |
1.5020 |
1.5050 |
|
Support |
1.4920 |
1.4890 |
1.4850 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Dollar rose against Pound. Cable ended a few pips below the opening price against the Dollar after being rejected from levels below 1.65, but the Pound failed to get back above 1.66. The BBA Mortgage Approvals came out 42.2K worse than expected 44K. The Business Investment came out -3% better than expected -3.5%. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6496 and with a high of 1.6617. Today, the GDP expected -0.3% vs. -0.4% previously.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6605
|
Resistance |
1.5505 |
1.6650 |
1.6775 |
|
Support |
1.6530 |
1.6500 |
1.6460 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen was the best performer among major and rose across the board. USD/JPY consolidated below 89.00 and broke below the support. The Trade Balance came out 0.42T better than expected 0.31T. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.34 and with a high of 89.06. Today, The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes expected.
USD/JPY-Last: 88.48
|
Resistance |
88.80 |
89.10 |
89.30 |
|
Support |
88.35 |
88.20 |
87.95 |
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart as crude oil, the nation’s largest export, and global equities slide, diminishing the appeal of currencies tied to growth. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0552 and with a high of 1.0642. Today, No economic data expected.
USD/CAD – Last: 1.0560
|
Resistance |
1.0645 |
1.0667 |
1.0690 |
|
Support |
1.0560 |
1.0540 |
1.0505 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com




