Archive for October, 2009
Daily Review 30/10/2009
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on October 30th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar fell against most of its counterparts after better than expected GDP increased investor\’s appetite for risk. The Gross Domestic Product was released at 3.5% vs. the 3.1% expected. Initial Jobless Claims came out slightly worse than expected at 530K. After 4 straight days of drops Wall Street headed for a steep rise after the GDP showed that the U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5% annual pace in the 3Q and fueled stocks. Dow Jones jumped by 2.05% to 9,963 and the NASDAQ rose by 1.84%. Crude oil jumped by 3.19% closing at 79.93$ a barrel as the surprising US economy expansion signaled for a potential increase in oil demand. Gold (XAU) trades at $1,047. Today, Personal Spending is expected at -0.4% vs. 1.3% previously and Employment Cost Index is expected unchanged at 0.4%.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro continued towards its fourth monthly rise against the Dollar as the U.S.’s return to growth renewed optimism a global recovery will quicken, aiding demand for higher-yielding assets. German Unemployment Change came out better than expected at -26K vs. expected 15K. European markets rose more than 1%. Commodities recovered from previous losses and posted important gains. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4682 and with a high of 1.4857. Today, European CPI Index is expected at -0.1% vs. -0.3% previously.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4830
|
Resistance |
1.4880 |
1.4925 |
1.4970 |
|
Support |
1.4770 |
1.4720 |
1.4680 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound climbed against the Dollar for a fourth day after reports showed U.K. mortgage approvals increased more than forecast last month and the U.S. returned to growth in the third quarter. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6337 and with a high of 1.6602. Today, Nationwide Housing Price Index is expected at 0.7% vs. 0.9% previously.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6560
|
Resistance |
1.6640 |
1.6700 |
1.6765 |
|
Support |
1.6475 |
1.6410 |
1.6350 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Japanese currency fell during the European session and continued its plunge after the release of a government report that showed Japan’s jobless rate unexpectedly dropped for a second month, reducing demand for the relative safety of the Japanese currency. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 90.24 and with a high of 91.60. Today, The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Press Conference is expected. The interest rate is expected unchanged at 0.1%.
USD/JPY-Last: 91.30
|
Resistance |
91.80 |
92.20 |
92.30 |
|
Support |
91.05 |
90.83 |
90.50 |
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar climbed from a 3 week low against the Dollar as stocks and commodities rallied after the US GDP report showed the American economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in a year. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0654 and with a high of 1.0820. Today, Canada\’s The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected at 0.1% vs. 0% previously.
USD/CAD – Last: 1.0670
|
Resistance |
1.0750 |
1.0820 |
1.0865 |
|
Support |
1.0630 |
1.0585 |
1.0545 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
GoLearnForex Daily Technical Analysis
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on October 29th, 2009
AUD/USD:
The AUD continues its recent retrace. Many traders use different time frames for different currency pairs. The longer the time frame the more valid the pattern you are charting is. Moving Averages are basic tool that even the most sophisticated trader needs to always be cognizant of. The markets tend follow the moving averages generated off of the daily charts.
In Chart below I use a moving average from an 8 hour chart. I strongly encourage traders to be vigilant of at least checking a weekly, daily, 8 and or 4 hour chart and then any time frame less than 4 hours that you may want to look at.
INSERT CHART
You can see that the yellow line representing the SMA 50 was breeched and prices continued a steady fall (The Red line is the 100 SMA). There are also a number of near candle formations that support this price depreciation.
Circled in blue is a near Falling Three Candle pattern. Typically you have a red candle followed by 3 or so small green candles that are contained by the original red candle. Following the last green candle is another red candle with price closing below the original red. The Falling Three pattern is nearly followed by Three Black Crows. This candle pattern forms when you have the candles each open in the midsection of the proceeding candle but also close lower than the proceeding candle. This pattern nearly forms between the 2 white lines.
GBP/USD:
This pair has been range bound since May. When a pair trades in a range, price is confined to a narrow margin of highs and lows. In the Chart below the 2 red lines represent the range support and resistance lines.
The 2 red boxes indicate when minor breakouts have occurred. The tops and bottoms of the boxes would be your absolute stops depending on the handle you entered the trade at. Another point of consideration is the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. You can see that the SMA’s are also moving sideways. Price typically pops when it passes above/below a significant SMA. With SMA moving into a sideways march we are approaching congestion on this pair and that should signal another breakout. Obviously if the dollar continues to strengthen as it has GBP should be headed south.
INSERT CHART
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on October 29th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar rose across the board. A rise in risk aversion following an unexpectedly drop in New Home Sales sent stocks lower worldwide. The Dow Jones fell for the 4th consecutive session and ended at 9,763.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 2% on concern a rally in equities this year outpaced the prospects for economic growth. New-home sales unexpectedly fell last month to an annual rate of 402K, from a revised 417K pace in August. Crude oil fell from $79 a barrel to $77.20 on stronger Dollar. Gold (XAU) continues to move away from the highs of the year and fell to test levels below $1,030 an ounce. Today, The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected at 3.1% vs. -0.7% previously. The Initial Jobless Claims are expected at 520K vs. 531K previously.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro kept weakening versus the Dollar for the 4th day in a row. The currency slumped against Dollar and Yen, reaching a 2 week low against both safe havens. The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) came out as expected at 0.1%. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4690 and with a high of 1.4840. Today, The German Unemployment Change is expected with 15K vs. -12K previously. The German Unemployment Rate is expected at 8.3% vs. 8.2% previously.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4700
|
Resistance |
1.48 |
1.4842 |
1.489 |
|
Support |
1.471 |
1.4675 |
1.465 |
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound failed to hold above 1.6400 versus the Dollar finding support only at 1.6360 following economic data in the U.S and Dollar\’s strength. GBP/USD peaked at the highest price for the current week but it was unable to hold versus the strengthening Dollar. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6285 and with a high of 1.6466. Today, Net Lending to individuals is expected unchanged at 0.7B. The Mortgage Approvals also expected unchanged at 52K.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6368
|
Resistance |
1.651 |
1.6575 |
1.6640 |
|
Support |
1.6355 |
1.6285 |
1.6240 |
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen rose sharply versus most majors as weak economic data sent world stocks lower fueling risk aversion. The Yen reached the highest in 2 weeks against the Euro amid signs the global economic recovery is losing steam, damping demand for higher-yielding assets. Industrial Production came out 1.4%better than 1.1% expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 90.54 and with a high of 91.80. Today, Household Spending is expected lower with 1.2% versus 2.6% and Tokyo Core CPI is expected with -2.0% versus -2.1% prior.
USD/JPY-Last: 90.42
|
Resistance |
91.3 |
91.75 |
92.1 |
|
Support |
90.5 |
90.1 |
89.9 |
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Canada’s currency depreciated against its U.S. counterpart to the lowest level in more than three weeks as declines in crude oil, the nation’s largest export, and stocks damped demand for higher-yielding assets. Overall, USDCAD traded with a low of 1.0636 and with a high of 1.0810. Today, The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) is expected at 1% vs. 3.7% previously.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0790
|
Resistance |
1.08 |
1.0855 |
1.0898 |
|
Support |
1.068 |
1.063 |
1.0587 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
GoLearnForex Daily Technical Analysis
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on October 28th, 2009
USD/CAD:
We have noted several times a formation we refer to as a Step pattern. More commonly this is identified by Lower Lows and Lower Highs and vice versa. We picked up on this pattern emerging on a 4 hours chart. We identified the possible start of this pattern shortly after the BOC publicly declared it’s sentiment for a “weak Canadian Dollar”. We assured you that there would still be time to catch this move even if you could not trade the actual news.
We suggested that you wait for the Step to appear and buy on the dip which was a confirmation of our pattern formation. On the graph that it is depicted near the 3 and a yellow circle. The exit for taking PNL we had at 1.0660 a prior support resistance point.
INSERT GRAPH
EUR/USD:
The Squeeze Play. We talked about this move where we are seemingly forced into a breakout. In one of our earlier pieces we mentioned that our experience told us not to bet on the Squeeze Play, meaning trade against the direction of the existing trend. I must admit we got carried away by the hoopla of crossing 1.50.
So the question you all should pose” is why in this case do you bet against the trend when one of the number one rules of technicians is never bet against the trend”. The answer is based on the number two rule of technicians and that is; trade for the outcome that has the highest statistical probability of occurring. To explain this further lets pose a question. Why didn’t the market make this move a while ago similar to the recent strong moves in CHF & AUD?
INSERT CHART
The answer is the Strength of the move was deteriorating in advance of 1.50. Every trader had their eye on 1.50, but obviously no one was a real buyer (for now) otherwise at 1.4830 when momentum started to stall we would have had traders continuing to bid up the EUR. Lastly, when price action was negligible on the big cross of 1.50 that should have been another tip that there were no big orders lined up to continue buying north of 1.50.
We added a MACD to indicate when the momentum started to wane. There are number of overbought tools on your platforms that you can use, from Stochastics and Oscillators to something as simple as the RSI.
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Daily Review
Posted by Cedrick Toledano in Uncategorized on October 28th, 2009
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar strengthen during yesterday trading session as Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in October for a second month. The Conference Board’s confidence index dropped to 47.7 from a revised 53.4 in September. NASDAQ decreased by 1.2% and Dow Jones slightly rose by 0.14%. Crude oil rose by 1% closing at 79.55$ a barrel after a volatile trading session as investors wait for the oil inventories today. Gold (XAU) weakened by 0.7% closed at 1035.4$ an ounce. Today, Core Durable Goods Orders are expected at 0.6% vs. -0.3% prior, New Home Sales are expected to rise from 429K to 443K.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro weakened versus the Dollar for the third day in a row on concern a rally in stocks and commodities can’t be sustained. M3 Money Supply came out worse than expected at 1.8% vs. 2.1% forecast. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4770 and with a high of 1.4926. Today, German Prelim CPI is expected at 0.1% vs.-0.4% previously.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4811
|
Resistance |
1.4824 |
1.4927 |
1.5046 |
|
Support |
1.4770 |
|
|
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound strengthened against the Dollar after the Confederation of British Industry\’s distributive trade\’s survey reported sales balance rose to +8 in October from +3 in September, better than economists\’ forecasts of a rise to +5. This is the fastest pace of growth since December 2007. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6285 and with a high of 1.6438. No economic data expected today.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6358
|
Resistance |
1.6438 |
1.6636 |
1.6693 |
|
Support |
1.6286 |
1.6250 |
|
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen rose against the Dollar for the first time in 6 days as a plunge in Treasury yields after the record $44 billion auction in two-year notes made the Dollar less attractive to Japanese investors. USD/JPY traded with a low of 91.70 and with a high of 92.32. Retail sales came out at -1.4% vs. -1.5% forecast. No economic data expected today.
USD/JPY-Last: 91.18
|
Resistance |
91.57 |
92.19 |
92.32 |
|
Support |
90.77 |
90.48 |
|
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar appreciated from a three-week low, gaining for the first time in four days amid speculation its decline was too big to be sustained after it reached a key technical level. Overall, USDCAD traded with a low of 1.0626 and with a high of 1.0716. Today, BOC Gov Carney Speaks.
USD/CAD – Last: 1.0664
|
Resistance |
1.0696 |
1.0717 |
|
|
Support |
1.0630 |
1.0500 |
1.0450 |
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

